Statutory provisions and significant probative value
14Sections 97 and 101 of the Evidence Act and the definition of "probative value" in Part 1 of the Act's Dictionary provide:
"97 The tendency rule
(1) Evidence of the character, reputation or conduct of a person, or a tendency that a person has or had, is not admissible to prove that a person has or had a tendency (whether because of the person's character or otherwise) to act in a particular way, or to have a particular state of mind unless:
(a) the party seeking to adduce the evidence gave reasonable notice in writing to each other party of the party's intention to adduce the evidence, and
(b) the court thinks that the evidence will, either by itself or having regard to other evidence adduced or to be adduced by the party seeking to adduce the evidence, have significant probative value.
(2) Subsection (1) (a) does not apply if:
(a) the evidence is adduced in accordance with any directions made by the court under section 100, or
(b) the evidence is adduced to explain or contradict tendency evidence adduced by another party.
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101 Further restrictions on tendency evidence and coincidence evidence adduced by prosecution
(1) This section only applies in a criminal proceeding and so applies in addition to sections 97 and 98.
(2) Tendency evidence about a defendant, or coincidence evidence about a defendant, that is adduced by the prosecution cannot be used against the defendant unless the probative value of the evidence substantially outweighs any prejudicial effect it may have on the defendant.
(3) This section does not apply to tendency evidence that the prosecution adduces to explain or contradict tendency evidence adduced by the defendant.
(4) This section does not apply to coincidence evidence that the prosecution adduces to explain or contradict coincidence evidence adduced by the defendant.
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probative value of evidence means the extent to which the evidence could rationally affect the assessment of the probability of the existence of a fact in issue."
15Sections 97 and 101 are exclusionary rules that apply to evidence that a person, in this case the accused, "has or had a tendency ... to act in a particular way". They operate on evidence of a person's tendency which has already met the threshold test for relevance in s 55 of the Evidence Act. As was noted in R v Cittadini [2008] NSWCCA 256; 189 A Crim R 492, by Simpson J at [23] (McClellan CJ at CL agreeing):
"... tendency evidence is tendered to prove (by inference), that, because, on a particular occasion, a person acted in a particular way (or had a particular state of mind), that person, on an occasion relevant to the proceeding, acted in a particular way (or had a particular state of mind)."
16In R v Fletcher [2005] NSWCCA 338; 156 A Crim R 308, at [33] to [35], Simpson J (McClellan CJ at CL agreeing) analysed the steps involved in addressing the tender of tendency evidence under s 97. Her Honour stated:
"[33] It is also useful to articulate the exercises involved in a decision to admit or reject evidence tendered as tendency evidence under s 97(1). Some precision in that analysis, also, is required. It is necessary to bear in mind:
(i) the actual probative value to be ascribed to a particular piece of evidence is committed to the tribunal of fact (in this case, the jury);
(ii ) even where the judge is the tribunal of fact, it is not ordinarily possible finally to determine the actual probative value of any piece of evidence until the evidence in the case is complete. This is explicitly recognised in s 97(1)(b), which envisages that the evaluation of the probative value of the evidence in question is to be made having regard to other evidence 'to be adduced', and implicitly by the use of the subjunctive 'would not' in s 97(1)(b).
(iii) whether a particular piece of evidence is capable of being ascribed probative value is to be determined by the trial judge; this is to be done by reference to the test prescribed in the definition of 'probative value' contained in the Dictionary and involves an assessment of the extent to which that evidence could rationally affect (ie is capable of rationally affecting) the probability of the existence of a fact in issue;
(iv) the task that a trial judge undertakes under s 97(1) involves a two-step process: firstly, the assessment of the extent to which the evidence in question has the capacity rationally to affect the probability of the existence of a fact in issue; and, secondly, (where the judge concludes that the evidence has that capacity) an assessment and prediction of the probative value that the jury might ascribe to the evidence. The evidence is not to be admitted if the judge concludes that the evidence, either alone or in conjunction with other evidence already adduced or to be adduced, would not have significant probative value, ie if the judge concludes that the jury would not regard the evidence as having probative value, and to a significant degree (in the sense explained by Hunt CJ at CL in Lockyer (1996) 89 A Crim R 457). If the determination is that, notwithstanding that the evidence would have probative value, its probative value would not be significant, then the evidence is not admissible.
[34] I have not, to this point, said anything about the identification of the 'fact in issue', the probability of the existence of which is said to be affected by the evidence under consideration. In some cases precise identification of that fact, or those facts, might be critical to the process. In this case, no attention was paid to that identification. It must be assumed that the fact (or facts) in issue to which the evidence was directed was (or were) whether the appellant had, on each or any occasion, conducted himself as alleged by the complainant.
[35] Two things emerge from the above. One is that the s 97(1) exercise is predictive and evaluative, and is not a scientific exercise with a clear or rigid answer, or with only one correct answer - reasonable minds will, on occasions, arrive at different results following the evaluative and predictive exercise. The other is that, where evidence 'to be adduced' is relevant to the exercise, the exercise must be undertaken on the assumption that that evidence will be given substantially as anticipated."
17In Bangaru v R [2012] NSWCCA 204, I explained at [263] to [265] (Beazley JA and Hall J agreeing) how the principles stated by Simpson J in Fletcher were endorsed by a five member Court of Criminal Appeal in the context of considering s 98 of the Evidence Act in DSJ v R [2012] NSWCCA 9; 259 FLR 262, with one modification. That modification was the fourth proposition stated by Simpson J in Fletcher at [33]. It was reformulated by Whealy JA (Bathurst CJ, Allsop P, McClellan CJ at CL and McCallum J agreeing) in DSJ at [72] so that the test of significant probative value requires a trial judge to:
"[T]ake the evidence at its highest, and to determine whether it has the capacity to be of importance or of consequence in establishing the fact in issue."
18That said, it has to always be remembered that such "importance" or "consequence" is to be assessed by the evidence's capacity to justify the application of tendency reasoning, as explained in Cittadini, to the evidence sought to be adduced as a means of establishing the facts in issue.
19In R v PWD [2010] NSWCCA 209; 205 A Crim R 75, Beazley JA (Buddin J and Barr AJ agreeing) reviewed the authorities concerning tendency evidence and concluded at [79]: "The authorities are clear that for evidence to be admissible under s 97 there does not have to be striking similarities, or even closely similar behaviour". PWD was a Crown appeal from a rejection of tendency evidence. The respondent was charged with a number of indecent assaults on male teenage students at a boarding school. The Crown sought to adduce evidence of other indecent assaults. The Crown did not allege that there were "striking similarities" in the respondent's conduct but rather contended there was "a pattern of behaviour, modus operandi, system or pattern and common threads ... in the respondent's conduct" (PWD at [35]). That was held to be sufficient.
20Needless to say these are all matters of fact and degree. A single previous incident may be able to meet the statutory test of significant probative value, however, to do so it is likely that there will need to be strong or even striking similarities between that one incident and the facts in issue so as to enable the test to be met by the use of tendency reasoning. Generally, if there is more than one incident, then the less likely it is that there needs to be such strong similarities to meet the statutory test, bearing in mind that a person's habits, tendencies or modus operandi commonly bend to meet particular circumstances. This is illustrated by the discussion in Bangaru at [267] to [275].