(3) Does the probative value substantially outweigh the prejudicial effect?
If the answer to any of these questions is 'No' the evidence is not admissible under s 97 as tendency evidence."
22 It may be observed that the third question arises under s 101(2), and admissibility under s 97 was elided with the application of that subsection.
23 The judge first asked whether the evidence was capable of being ascribed probative value. He said, referring to authority, that it was not sufficient that the respondent engaged in sexual misconduct with JC and AR and allegedly with the complainant, and that it was necessary that there be "a significant similarity in the conduct or a pattern of some sort or a modus operandi that can be determined by looking at all the conduct involving each child, not by analysing each act separately". Noting that examination of the similarities and dissimilarities was, although relevant, not determinative, he said that he had sought to set out the evidence to show the similarities and dissimilarities, and that having carefully considered them he concluded that the tendency evidence was capable of rationally affecting the probability of whether the respondent digitally penetrated the complainant and touched her on the breasts as she alleged.
24 The judge then asked whether the evidence when considered alone or in conjunction with other evidence adduced or to be adduced had significant probative value. He concluded -
"41. Tendency evidence is placed before a jury as evidence tending to prove the guilt of the accused. If admitted it is as Howie J said in Harker [ R v Harker [2004] NSWCCA 427] positive proof of guilt. The jury are asked to reason that because the accused acted in a particular way on some other occasion or occasions with another girl or girls he or she must have acted in the same way on another occasion with the complainant. In the present case the Crown wishes to adduce the evidence in order to argue that because the accused acted in a particular way with both JC and AR he must have acted in the same way towards the current complainant MA.
42. In my view it would be open to the jury to see the tendency evidence as important or of consequence when viewed with the other evidence in determining if the accused digitally penetrated the complainant as alleged in the indictment and sexually assaulted her as alleged in the first count in the indictment. I would reach the same conclusion myself without needing to predict a jury's approach which was the approach favoured by Basten JA in his dissenting judgment in Zhang and majority of the Tasmanian Court of Criminal Appeal adopted in L v Tasmania [2006] TASSC 89."
25 The judge then asked whether the probative value substantially outweighed the prejudicial effect. He said at [47] that s 101(2) required the court to consider the prejudice in each case, not solely the presumed prejudice where evidence of an accused's bad character is placed before the jury. His reasoning to answering his question in the negative should be set out in full -
"49. … If the tendency evidence be admitted, it would be open to the accused to argue that he made admissions when he did wrong things, and pleaded guilty in connection with his conduct towards JC and AR, and the jury could be assured that if he did the wrong things currently alleged by MA, he would have admitted those offences as well. However, I do not see that as a powerful argument militating against prejudice that this evidence will undoubtedly cause in the jurors' minds. In this court's experience, evidence of limited good character, such as, 'I am a petty thief, I am not a drug supplier', rarely carries weight with a jury, and the argument indicated is akin to arguments presented when evidence of limited good character is placed before a jury.
50. In the current matter, it is not evidence of limited good character or limited bad character. Rather it is evidence of bad character of the very type alleged in the counts in the indictment. Notwithstanding the warnings that a trial judge must give, and the possible positive use that the accused might make of the tendency evidence, the jury will be invited to use the tendency evidence to reason that because the accused molested his own daughter, and AR, he did the same thing to MA. Evidence only has probative weight if it is considered rationally. If the tendency evidence is admitted, the jury will know that the accused is a self-confessed child molester. Of course, the trial judge will need to tell the jury that the accused has been punished for those crimes and must not be punished for them again by a verdict based on emotional, and not rational consideration.
51. Sexual molestation of children is a very emotive issue in the community. That is completely understandable, and a concern of every parent. Frequently one seeks and hears it discussed, not only in the media, both irrationally and in emotive ways. No matter how many times a jury is told to be objective and dispassionate, that in the context of the trial of a self-confessed child molester is, to use the vernacular, a big ask. One cannot ignore the risk of, at least, one juror being unable, either consciously or unconsciously to ignore such directions, and to consider the matter emotionally and irrationally. Such an approach may mean that the juror closes his or her ears and mind to the warnings as to how the tendency evidence may help the accused on the question of the complainant's credibility. There is a possibility that the issue of credibility may be ignored altogether. The potential for very great prejudice remains regardless of what could be said by the trial judge to ameliorate it.
52. The tendency evidence does have significant probative value. However, it is not crucial to the Crown case in the sense that if it is not admitted, the offences alleged cannot be established. There is corroboration for the complainant, MA, on the question of the discussion of cunnilingus from her mother, and on the question of a sudden change in behaviour of the complainant from both the principal of the school, and the teacher's aide, to whose evidence I have referred.
53. A jury may be persuaded to listen to the complainant's evidence more sympathetically because of her mild intellectual disability. It is clear from the electronic record of interview with the complainant, that unusually, these days, for a twelve year old, she is very sexually, or was at the time of the interview, sexually unaware. She could initially only refer to her vagina as her 'rude part', and as the source from which her 'wee' came. Subsequently, she remembered that that part of her body was called the 'pussy', and then much later in her record of interview, she said that that part of her anatomy was the 'vagina hole', a term used by the accused to her.
54. Having presided in a number of trials of this nature here at Campbelltown, I have found juries to be reluctant to accept the evidence of girls as young as twelve of sexual molestation, when it is clear they are very sexually aware. It is clear from the transcripts of the ERISP before me that here the complainant is very sexually unaware. In my view, that makes the Crown case stronger than it might otherwise be. The tendency evidence here is not overwhelming as it was in Ellis [ R v Ellis (2003) 58 NSWLR 700], where the modus operandi included the removal of a full pane of glass, which the evidence disclosed was rare and, therefore, very distinctive.
55. Viewed objectively, the similarities here are not as compelling as in Nassif [ R v Nassif [2004] NSWCCA 433], where there were four separate sets of offences involving bizarre assaults on a young woman in broad daylight in Marrickville, Leichhardt, Croydon or Burwood, where the offender used a stolen Ford, wore no disguise, and exhibited a motive of sexual intent. Identity of the offender was the issue in that trial. The evidence here is not in the same category as either the evidence in Milton [ R v Milton [2004] NSWCCA 195], Fletcher [ R v Fletcher [2005] NSWCCA 338] or Harker , or indeed, the evidence in L v Tasmania . The evidence in Milton , Fletcher and Harker has been summed up succinctly in the written submissions, on behalf of the accused, and I need not recite it further. Section 101(2) requires more than the competing considerations of prejudice and probative value of the tendency evidence being evenly balanced. It requires more than the scales being tipped slightly in favour of the probative value of the evidence. The scales must be tipped substantially in that direction.
56. I am not persuaded that that is the case here. Accordingly, I reject the tendency evidence. I have borne in mind the balancing exercise, as required by s 101(2), and also the approach of McHugh JA in Pfenning v The Queen [(1995) 182 CLR 461] at 529 that was quoted in [11] of R v RN [2006] NSWCCA 423. For those reasons the tendency evidence is rejected."