Malec v Hutton
21 In Malec v Hutton, Deane, Gaudron and McHugh JJ, at 640, identified the issue on the appeal as being:
"… the valuation of a plaintiff's damage, caused by the tortious conduct of the defendant, after it is found that it is more likely than not that the damage would have occurred in any event as the result of conditions or events for which the defendant is not legally responsible."
22 In Malec v Hutton, the plaintiff, a labourer in a meat works, contracted acute brucellosis during the course of his employment. Brucellosis has two possible sequelae. One is in the development of depressive illness. The other is the development of an organic condition that results in a degenerative like condition in the spine. The trial judge had found that the plaintiff had contracted brucellosis sometime between 1975 and 1977 as a result of the defendant's negligence, but by 1983, the condition was no longer present. However, by 1982, the plaintiff had developed symptoms in his cervical and lumbar spine. He had also developed a neurotic illness. The trial judge was not satisfied that the cervical and lumber condition was a consequence of contracting brucellosis, but was satisfied that the neurotic condition was "precipitated by brucellosis". Nonetheless, he found that the neurotic condition from which the plaintiff was suffering as at the date of trial, was not related to the brucellosis that he had contracted in the period 1975-1977.
23 On appeal, it was held that the neurotic condition was caused by depression induced by the acute brucellosis. By majority, it was also held that by reason of the plaintiff's personality it was:
"… likely that [by the age of 44] the development of symptoms from his deteriorating back condition would have produced a similar neurotic condition even if he had never contracted the brucellosis."
24 Accordingly, it was held that the plaintiff was not entitled to economic loss beyond his forty-fourth birthday. The High Court said that the appellate court thereby erred in so limiting his economic loss. In doing so, the High Court distinguished between the approach to the assessment of damages in the case where an event has or has not occurred, and that which must be undertaken where it is alleged that an event would or would not have occurred, or might or might not yet occur. It is necessary to set out their Honour's explanation, at 643, of the correct approach in the latter case in full:
"The future may be predicted and the hypothetical may be conjectured. But questions as to the future or hypothetical effect of physical injury or degeneration are not commonly susceptible of scientific demonstration or proof. If the law is to take account of future or hypothetical events in assessing damages, it can only do so in terms of the degree of probability of those events occurring . The probability may be very high - 99.9 per cent - or very low - 0.1 per cent. But unless the chance is so low as to be regarded as speculative - say less than 1 per cent - or so high as to be practically certain - say over 99 per cent - the court will take that chance into account in assessing the damages. Where proof is necessarily unattainable, it would be unfair to treat as certain a prediction which has a 51 per cent probability of occurring, but to ignore altogether a prediction which has a 49 per cent probability of occurring. Thus, the court assesses the degree of probability that an event would have occurred, or might occur, and adjusts its award of damages to reflect the degree of probability . The adjustment may increase or decrease the amount of damages otherwise to be awarded. See Mallett v McMonagle ; Davies v Taylor ; McIntosh v Williams at pp 550-551. The approach is the same whether it is alleged that the event would have occurred before or might occur after the assessment of damages takes place." (Citations omitted; emphasis added)
25 In determining how that approach was to be applied to the facts in Malec v Hutton their Honours stated, at 644-645:
"It is impossible to conclude, however, that it was 100 per cent certain that the plaintiff's back condition and consequent unemployability would have precipitated a similar neurotic condition. On the evidence and the findings of the majority of the Full Court, the chance that a similar neurotic condition would actually have resulted from these two events occurring may well be thought to have been far from overwhelming. True it is that the plaintiff developed a neurotic condition as the result of contracting brucellosis. But that disease resulted in suffering which was prolonged and severe. It by no means follows from what occurred as the result of his contracting brucellosis that there is an overwhelming likelihood that another event or other events would have precipitated a similar neurotic condition. First, there was a substantial chance that, even if the plaintiff's back had made him unemployable, he would have gone through life without suffering from a neurotic condition similar to his present condition. Secondly, in determining the chance that unemployability as the result of his back condition would have similar neurotic condition, it is necessary to bear in mind that more than one probability is involved. There is the degree of probability that the plaintiff would have become unemployable in any event as the result of his back condition and there is the degree of probability that the happening of that occurrence would have precipitated a neurotic condition. When those probabilities are combined, the chance that the plaintiff would develop a neurotic condition decreases exponentially. If, for example, and only by way of illustration, there was a 75 per cent probability of his becoming unemployable by reason of his back condition even if he had not contracted brucellosis and a 75 per cent chance that that unemployability would have caused a similar neurotic condition, there was only a 56.25 per cent chance (75 per cent x 75 per cent) that, if he had not contracted brucellosis, he would have developed a similar neurotic condition."
26 Brennan and Dawson JJ agreed with the majority judgment ,subject to their own observations as follows. Their Honours referred to Mallet v McMonagle [1970] AC 166, where Lord Diplock said at 176:
"The role of the court in making an assessment of damages which depends upon its view as to what will be and what would have been is to be contrasted with its ordinary function in civil actions of determining what was. In determining what did happen in the past a court decides on the balance of probabilities. Anything that is more probable than not it treats as certain. But in assessing damages which depend upon its view as to what will happen in the future or would have happened in the future if something had not happened in the past, the court must make an estimate as to what are the chances that a particular thing will or would have happened and reflect those chances, whether they are more or less than even, in the amount of damages which it awards." (Emphasis added)
27 Their Honours stated, at 640, that it was undesirable that damages be assessed on the footing of an evaluation expressed as a percentage. Their Honours then said that:
"Damages need not be assessed by first determining an award on the footing that the hypothetical situation would have occurred and then discounting the award by a selected percentage. Damages founded on hypothetical evaluations defy precise calculation."
28 Senior counsel for the appellant submitted that her Honour's approach was erroneous because, rather than assessing the degree of probability that the respondent would have qualified as a licensed aircraft maintenance engineer and have been paid for at the rate for a licensed engineer, she found, in effect, as "an historical fact", that the respondent would have become so qualified, and then deducted a vicissitude for the possibility that he may not.
29 It was submitted that the error is demonstrated when it is recognised that a finding on the probabilities is not a finding of a "100 per cent chance". Rather, it is a finding that there was more than a 50 per cent chance, say, a 60 per cent chance that the respondent would have become qualified. It was submitted that that finding was then converted by her Honour into a 100 per cent chance, from which she deducted a 10 per cent possibility that the "100 per cent chance" may not happen.
30 It was submitted that that was a very different approach from making an assessment as to the probability that an event (in this case the attainment of the qualifications as a licensed engineer) would have occurred or might occur. In brief, this submission amounted to a contention that the trial judge in this case had made the same error as had been the subject of correction by the High Court in Malec v Hutton.
31 If the matter was left at that passage of her Honour's judgment, the appellant's submissions would have some attraction. However, I am not satisfied that her Honour made such an error. The judgment has to be read as a whole and allowances must be made for any infelicity of expression. This is more particularly so when a judgment is, as was the case here, delivered ex tempore. As I have set out above, her Honour, at 13, specifically stated that she assessed "a ninety per cent chance that the plaintiff would have qualified as a licensed aircraft maintenance engineer, probably around the beginning of 2004". That is a direct expression of the approach required by Malec v Hutton. Her Honour repeated this at 22-23, when she stated that she had found "a 90% probability that the plaintiff would have become a licensed aircraft maintenance engineer".
32 I accept the argument of senior counsel for the appellant, that to understand her Honour's judgment in this way, overlooks the initial alleged error of converting a probability into a 100 per cent chance and then deducting a 10 per cent possibility. Nonetheless, for the reasons I have given, I have considered that her Honour did not make that error. I consider that her Honour was aware that she had to assess the probability of the future event occurring and did so. Rather than reading the first passage in the judgment about which complaint is made in the way the appellant contends, I consider that her Honour was assessing the likelihood that the respondent would have obtained his qualifications as a licensed aircraft maintenance engineer and the probability of his doing so was not absolute, but a 90 per cent chance.
33 My conclusion that her Honour did not make the error is reinforced by her finding (at 10) that the respondent was "a very ambitious and driven man and … someone who wished to further himself and to increase his income". This finding was made in respect of the claim for economic loss arising out of his inability to continue to work as a scuba diving instructor or as a private investigator, but nonetheless was a statement of the impression that her Honour had formed of him, an impression which she said was consistent with the impression that had been gained by the medical witnesses in the case.
34 Accordingly, I am of the opinion that no error has been shown in that aspect of her Honour's judgment. It is a different question, however, as to whether her Honour's assessment of the "90 per cent chance" was erroneous, in the sense of falling outside the undoubtedly wide range available in making an evaluative assessment. I will deal with this issue below, because the question raised by the "second issue" is also relevant to that question.