43 That is a most important consideration to bear in mind, and one for which I have sought to make every allowance. Nonetheless, having done that, I regard Ms Philips' evidence as credible and convincing. It engendered in me a comfortable feeling of actual persuasion that the events of which she gave evidence occurred substantially as she said.
44 That view is reinforced, although in a collateral way, by the failure of the challenge to her evidence as to the onset of symptoms in her left arm. I regard her responses to that challenge in cross-examination, and her subsequent vindication, as corroborating my assessment of her credibility.
45 If matters went no further, I would find in her favour. However, I acknowledge that the matters to which Mr Perram pointed in submissions raise a real impediment to my doing so.
46 It is undoubtedly correct to say that acceptance of Ms Philips' evidence as to the conversations must lead to the conclusion that representatives of FAI Life made mistakes on at least three, and perhaps four, occasions. But I do not think that the question of assessment of what actually happened, or assessment of the evidence, is to be undertaken by some mechanical (or for that matter arithmetical) assessment of probability (see Dixon J in Briginshaw v Briginshaw (1938) 60 CLR 336 at 361; and see the majority, Dixon, Evatt and McTiernan JJ, in Helton v Allen (1940) 63 CLR 691, 712).
47 In this case I am confronted with a choice. Did Ms Philips make a mistake on three separate occasions? Or did FAI Life's representatives (at least three of them) make a mistake on three separate occasions?
48 I have no way of making any assessment of the probability of the latter alternative, apart from what may be inferred from the policies and procedures to which I have referred. However, I have been able to make an assessment of the former. In my assessment, the matters put against Mrs Philips do not destroy, or negate, the feeling of actual persuasion that her evidence gave me.
49 The question of objective probability may be looked at in two different ways. On the one hand, it is less rather than more probable that Ms Philips would have been mistaken on a matter of such great importance to her - let alone mistaken on three occasions. In this context, it is necessary to reiterate that no submission of deliberate untruthfulness was put.
50 On the other hand, it may be said to be less, rather than more, probable that three or four separate representatives of FAI Life would have made the errors attributed to them, having regard to the wealth of material available to them which, if consulted and understood, would have averted the errors.
51 In effect (and making the most favourable assumption to Tower: that the representatives, had they given evidence and been cross-examined, might have stuck to what might be thought to have been their story), the probabilities, in my view, cancel out.
52 In this context, I refer again to what I have said before as to one inconsistent aspect of Tower's case. It put to me that inquiries such as those made by Mrs Philips were common. As I have said, it relied upon that to suggest that they would not have been answered wrongly. However, it put to FICS (many years closer to the relevant events) that such inquiries were not common. That inconsistency as to a matter on which Mr Perram placed some weight, although unresolved through cross-examination, does not leave me with a feeling of real satisfaction in relation to this particular aspect of Tower's evidence.
53 I am thus left with my assessment of Ms Philips. On that basis, I find that the representations alleged by her in her evidence were made. Her estoppel case is thus, in principle, made good, and she is entitled, in principle, to succeed on that basis.