For ease of expression I shall refer to the current effect of the Act on the sales of the plaintiffs, but what follows applies equally to the past effect of the Act on the sales of the plaintiffs in so far as they are the subject of the present proceedings and irrespective of whether the tax was 25 per cent or 30 per cent. Upon the facts in the case stated, I think that s. 10 imposes a duty of excise on Philip Morris Ltd. ("P.M.L.") unless the legislation is indistinguishable from that considered in the franchise cases. I think that s. 10 imposes a duty of excise because it imposes a tax of 30 per cent on the estimated value of tobacco which P.M.L., as manufacturer, sells in any month for which it holds its licence. Quantification of a licence fee by reference to events in a past period of business will not prevent that fee from being characterized as a duty of excise: Gosford Meats. The fee for the month in the present case is calculated by reference to the sales for the last preceding month but one. The close proximity between the two periods shows that the purpose of the legislation is to tax the sale of tobacco by reference to the estimated value of what will be sold. If the fee were calculated by reference to the likely or projected sales for that month, the fee would be an excise: cf. Matthews . The Act does not, of course, select the likely or projected sales for the licence month as the criterion of liability. But by selecting the sales in the preceding month but one, it selects a period which, according to the ordinary course of business, is likely to give as accurate a guide to the likely sales during the month of the licence as can be practically achieved. The fee bears, therefore, "a natural, although not a necessary relation to the quantity of the commodity" sold during the month of the licence: cf. Matthews [86] . The relationship between the fee and the quantity of tobacco sold is even more direct than the relationships between the fees and the quantities of commodities produced in Hematite Petroleum and Logan Downs and which were held to be excises. Moreover, the calculation of the fee by reference to a percentage of actual sales in the preceding month but one, the size of the percentage, and the recurrent nature of the fee as a monthly outgoing lead to the conclusion that what is admitted to be a tax of 30 per cent was intended to be passed down the line to the consumer as part of the price of tobacco products sold by the licensee during the month of the licence. Demand for tobacco products seems to be relatively inelastic (i.e. relatively irresponsive to price change): see New South Wales Tax Task Force, Tax Reform and N.S.W. Economic Development: Review of the State Tax System, August 1988, p. 81. It is almost inevitable, therefore, that the incidence of the monthly licence fee will be shifted to the consumer. But whether or not the whole of the tax is passed onto the consumer, it is enough, according to the theory of this Court's decisions on excise, that the tax from its nature has "a tendency to enter into the price obtained": Parton [87] . Most of the monthly fee paid by P.M.L. is a direct tax on the sales made by a local manufacturer of its products (the balance is paid in respect of the sale of products which it does not manufacture). A tax payable by the producer of goods upon the first sale of goods produced by him is an excise: the Commonwealth Oil Refineries Case; John Fairfax & Sons.