The Minister's decision in this case
29 As noted above, in the present case the discretion to revoke the cancellation arose if the Minister was satisfied that there was "another reason" (apart from passing the character test) to revoke the cancellation. It was asserted that the "decision" (namely the conclusion that the Minister was not so satisfied) was "legally unreasonable".
30 At [59] of his reasons for decision, the Minister found that "there is a likelihood that [the applicant] will re-offend, albeit a low likelihood". This finding was in that part of the reasons which specifically dealt with "risk to the Australian community". The Minister considered that "further offending of a similar nature by [the applicant] could result in physical and/or psychological harm to members of the Australian community". Paragraph [59] contains the Minister's explanation for his finding of "likelihood".
31 At [66] of his reasons for decision, in the section of the reasons headed "Conclusion" and which summarised the conclusions reached in the various earlier sections of the reasons for decision, the Minister stated: "I could not rule out the possibility of further offending by [the applicant]" and that "the Australian community could be exposed to great harm should Mr Ogbonna re-offend in a similar fashion". This statement, appearing as it does in the "Conclusion" section of the reasons, is to be read as a reference to, or together with, his earlier findings and reasons for the conclusion at [59] that there was a positive "likelihood … albeit a low likelihood" of "further offending of a similar nature". The observation that the Minister "could not rule out the possibility of further offending" cannot be read as a finding that there was only a possibility of re-offending rather than a likelihood of re-offending. That interpretation would be directly inconsistent with the reasoned conclusion at [59] that there was a positive likelihood of re-offending. Nor does the sentence mean that literally.
32 The reference to "offending of a similar nature" (at [59]) and "re-offend in a similar fashion" (at [66]) can only be a reference to knowingly taking part in the supply of a large commercial quantity of drugs. The Minister could only have had in mind a risk of that nature because that was the relevant offending and because no other offending which might cause "great harm" to the Australian community was identified.
33 The Minister's reasons are to be read in accordance with the principles in Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Wu Shan Liang (1996) 185 CLR 259 (Wu Shan Liang). Applying those principles, the Minister was stating his opinion that, notwithstanding all of the positive aspects which attended the applicant's situation and the matters which had been referred to by the applicant in his s 501CA "representations" to the Minister, he nevertheless considered the applicant was likely to "re-offend in a similar fashion" because his state of rehabilitation had not been tested for any significant period outside of a custodial environment - see: Minister's reasons at [58] and [59]. To re-offend in a "similar fashion", the applicant would need knowingly to take part in the supply of a commercial quantity of drugs. Presumably, the Minister reasoned that the applicant would return to drug use because his rehabilitation (drug abstinence) might not survive once tested for a period outside of a custodial setting. Presumably, the Minister further reasoned that this likely return to drugs was then also likely to lead to the applicant knowingly taking part in the supply of a commercial quantity of drugs. There is no express reasoning to this effect but something to that effect must be presumed because the Minister expressly concluded there was a likelihood that the applicant would again be knowingly involved in the supply of drugs.
34 Counsel for the Minister submitted that this "guardedness" (in fact, the view that it was likely the applicant would re-offend by knowingly taking part in the supply of drugs) on the part of the Minister was justified by material before the Minister and, in written submissions, nominated two aspects of the material said to support that submission. The first was a few particular sentences of a letter written by the applicant's wife to the Minister, namely the following:
[The applicant] has had a lot of problems with addiction to some drugs … He has tried many times to stop taking drugs but has not been able to stop until he was been sent to prison … I think what my husband desperately needs now is a rehabilitation to help him be confident in himself and abstain from drug intake.
35 It is clear from paragraph [53] of his reasons for decision that the Minister understood the applicant's wife to have the view "that he has rehabilitated". The sentences indicate that, in the opinion of the applicant's wife, ongoing support was desirable. The context was that the applicant's wife would be providing such support. The Minister accepted, at [59], that the applicant would have support. The Minister did not refer to this letter as something which gave rise to any "guardedness", less still as being probative of a likelihood of re-offending, but obviously (see reasons at [53]) considered the letter in concluding that the applicant's wife considered the applicant had rehabilitated, and presumably in reaching his conclusion (at [59]) that the applicant had "connections and support".
36 The second piece of material referred to was part of a psychological assessment dated 4 June 2013 which included the following passages specifically relied upon by counsel:
[The applicant] stated that he has abstained from all substance use since being remanded, and has recently completed the Getting SMART program to address his future risk of relapse …
Since being remanded [the applicant] has taken steps to address these factors such as abstaining from substance use, and attending programs that are aimed towards managing use behaviours and grief reactions … [The applicant's] prospects for change and reduction of risk appear to be positive, with ongoing support and intervention.
37 This report was prepared after the applicant had been remanded in custody on 4 November 2011 and after he had pleaded guilty on 16 May 2013, but before he was sentenced on 3 March 2014. The Minister's decision was made on 14 February 2017. The Minister accepted that the applicant had not returned to drug use in the intervening nearly four years. The Minister did not refer in his reasons to this report as inspiring his opinion that there was a "likelihood" that the applicant would return to drug use, leading him to re-offend in a "similar fashion". The applicant had "ongoing support and intervention" during his incarceration to which the Minster referred at [56].
38 In oral submissions, counsel for the Minister relied on two further matters said to constitute material before the Minister which justified his "guardedness" (that is, the finding of a likelihood of re-offending in a similar fashion). The first was a report dated 7 October 2015 from a consultant psychologist who had been retained by Parish Patience to interview the applicant and assess his current mental state and risk of recidivism. This report contained a number of paragraphs under the heading "Recidivism assessment Christian Ogbonna". The report expressed the conclusion, at paragraph [84], that: "Based on his Level of Service Inventory (revised) score he would be considered a low risk of reoffending". This statement was an identification of where the applicant stood on a particular scale - the Level of Service Inventory (revised) - which is a tool used by professionals to assess an individual's risk of recidivism. That scale was not before the Minister, nor was it before this Court. Reading the report in context, particularly paragraphs [57] to [83], it seems that the applicant was considered to be at the very bottom of the scale.
39 The Minister submitted that the statement at [84] of the report that the applicant was a "low risk of reoffending" was an expert finding which was entirely consistent with the Minister's findings. Counsel for the Minister argued the Court "would not find that the [Minister's] finding of a low risk of re-offending was affected by unreasonableness in circumstances where it was supported by expert evidence placed before the Minister". However, this argument fails to deal with the fact that the Minister's finding was that "there is a likelihood that Mr OGBONNA would re-offend, albeit a low likelihood". The statement at paragraph [84] of the psychologist report that the applicant was a "low risk of reoffending" was not a positive statement of opinion that there was a likelihood that he would re-offend; if anything, a natural reading of that sentence when the report is read as a whole is to the opposite effect - that is, that the applicant's risk of re-offending was as low as the scale contemplated and not a likelihood at all. The report did not support the conclusion that there was a likelihood of re-offending. Of course, the report could be read as recognising a low risk of re-offending, but that proposition does not need an expert report; it is perhaps usually present to some degree and the Minister's specific finding with respect to the risk to the Australian community was that Mr Ogbonna was likely to re-offend.
40 The second matter put orally as justifying the Minister's "guardedness", were the additional conditions which attached to the State Parole Authority's decision to release the applicant on parole on 3 May 2015. These were:
15. The offender must, if so directed by the Officer, seek assistance in controlling his abuse of drugs and/or alcohol and must authorise in writing that his medical and other professional and/or technical advisers or consultants make available to the Officer a report on his medical, and/or other conditions at all reasonable times.
16. The offender must not use, or be in possession of, a prohibited drug or substance.
17. The offender must undertake testing for drug and/or alcohol use, where facilities are available, at the direction of the Officer.
18. The offender must, if so directed by the Officer, undergo psychological assessment and counselling at a place or places determined by that Officer and must authorise in writing that his medical and other professional and/or technical advisers or consultants make available to the Officer a report on such assessment and counselling at all reasonable times.
19. The offender must not associate with his co-offenders without the express prior approval of the Officer.
41 There was nothing in the material before the Minister which suggested that these conditions were unusual or that they were imposed because of a particular perception of likelihood that the applicant would return to drug use or supply. It is not obvious that those conditions justify the Minister's "guardedness". It might equally be said that the conditions were a reason why re-offending was unlikely or the risk, which is perhaps present in every case, was mitigated.
42 The foregoing material did not justify a finding of likelihood of re-offending in a similar fashion (knowingly supplying drugs) in the face of the other findings which the Minister had reached.
43 The sole expressed factor which led the Minister to the conclusion that there was a likelihood of re-offending, albeit a low likelihood, was the fact that the applicant's rehabilitation had not yet been tested for any length of time outside of a custodial environment. There was no other identified basis for concluding that there was a likelihood of re-offending in a similar fashion. Paragraphs [58] and [59], which appeared under the heading "Risk to the Australian community", stated:
58. While noting factors in his favour I also consider that Mr OGBONNA's rehabilitation has not yet been tested for a significant period outside a custodial environment.
59. I find that there is a likelihood that Mr OGBONNA will re-offend, albeit a low likelihood. I consider that further offending of a similar nature by Mr OGBONNA could result in physical and/or psychological harm to members of the Australian community. In reaching this finding I have taken into consideration Mr OGBONNA's expressions of remorse, his insight into the offending, his connections and support, rehabilitative and other courses undertaken to date, as well as his largely positive response to supervision during his incarceration and his overall good behaviour when in immigration detention, together with his prospective employment and plans for the future, while noting that he has not been tested in the community.
44 In paragraph [59], the Minister expressly stated what he considered in concluding that there was a likelihood of re-offending:
Mr Ogbonna's expressions of remorse,
his insight into the offending,
his connections and support,
the rehabilitative and other courses he had undertaken to date,
his largely positive response to supervision during his incarceration,
his overall good behaviour when in immigration detention,
his prospective employment and plans for the future,
his not having been tested (for a significant period, see [58]) in the community.
45 Leaving aside the last matter, none of these matters weighed logically in favour of a conclusion of a likelihood of re-offending. There was no probative material before the Minister which suggested that there was a likelihood of reoffending, notwithstanding Mr Ogbonna's accepted expressions of remorse, his insight into the offending, his connections and support, the rehabilitative and other courses undertaken to date, as well as his largely positive response to supervision during his incarceration and his overall good behaviour when in immigration detention, together with his prospective employment and plans for the future. As to the last matter identified in paragraph [59] for the positive conclusion of a likelihood of re-offending, there was no material which suggested someone who had enjoyed the state of rehabilitation which the applicant enjoyed, was likely to re-offend if they had not been tested for a period in a non-custodial setting. Nor does the conclusion so expressed flow reasonably or rationally, without more, in the face of the other findings referred to in paragraph [59] or the reasons for decision more generally.
46 The Minister was entitled to speculate as to what might happen in the future by reference to evidence of what had occurred in the past: Muggeridge at [36]. In Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo (1997) 191 CLR 559 at 574-5, Brennan CJ, Dawson, Toohey, Gaudron, McHugh and Gummow JJ said:
In determining whether there was a real chance that Mr Guo would be persecuted for a Convention reason, the Tribunal had no choice but to form an opinion as to what was likely to occur if Mr Guo was returned to the PRC. In the course of determining whether there was a real chance of persecution for such a reason, the Tribunal made findings about past events and the motivation of the Chinese authorities in penalising Mr Guo, as it was entitled and, indeed, bound to do (s 166E(1) of the Act). It then used those findings as the basis for its conclusion that there was no chance of future persecution. But that does not mean that it decided the well-founded fear of persecution issue on the balance of probabilities.
The course of the future is not predictable, but the degree of probability that an event will occur is often, perhaps usually, assessable. Past events are not a certain guide to the future, but in many areas of life proof that events have occurred often provides a reliable basis for determining the probability - high or low - of their recurrence. The extent to which past events are a guide to the future depends on the degree of probability that they have occurred, the regularity with which and the conditions under which they have or probably have occurred and the likelihood that the introduction of new or other events may distort the cycle of regularity. In many cases, when the past has been evaluated, the probability that an event will occur may border on certainty. In other cases, the probability that an event will occur may be so low that, for practical purposes, it can be safely disregarded. In between these extremes, there are varying degrees of probability as to whether an event will or will not occur. But unless a person or tribunal attempts to determine what is likely to occur in the future in relation to a relevant field of inquiry, that person or tribunal has no rational basis for determining the chance of an event in that field occurring in the future.
Determining whether there is a real chance that something will occur requires an estimation of the likelihood that one or more events will give rise to the occurrence of that thing. In many, if not most cases, determining what is likely to occur in the future will require findings as to what has occurred in the past because what has occurred in the past is likely to be the most reliable guide as to what will happen in the future. It is therefore ordinarily an integral part of the process of making a determination concerning the chance of something occurring in the future that conclusions are formed concerning past events. …
47 The problem in the present case is that the speculation as to what might occur in the future, or the prediction as to those events, was done in a manner which was not supported by probative material and the conclusion of a likelihood of re-offending was logically disconnected from the favourable findings as to why the possibility or risk of recidivism, perhaps present in every case, was low.
48 In SZMDS at [124], Crennan and Bell JJ pointed out that a description of reasoning as "illogical or unreasonable or irrational" may merely be an emphatic way of expressing disagreement with the subject decision. Their Honours also pointed out that a Court should be slow, although not unwilling, to interfere in an appropriate case: at [130]. This is an appropriate case. Having made findings in favour of a low risk of re-offending (by being knowingly involved in the supply of a commercial quantity of drugs), and in the absence of material which could transform that possibility into a probability of re-offending, it was legally unreasonable to conclude that there was a likelihood of re-offending on the sole basis that the applicant's accepted state of (drug) rehabilitation had not been tested for more than a short period outside of a custodial setting.
49 The Minister's state of satisfaction or opinion for the purposes of s 501CA(4)(b)(ii) was not formed reasonably and the resulting decision, not to revoke the original decision cancelling the visa, was affected by jurisdictional error and is liable to be quashed. It cannot be said that the error was immaterial, or not critical to, the Minister's ultimate decision not to revoke the original decision - cf: Muggeridge at [35(6)]. One of the principal reasons (and the only significant one apart from the seriousness of the offence) for refusing to revoke the cancellation was the apparent perception that there was a likelihood, albeit low, of re-offending in a "similar fashion". It cannot be said that, if the Minister had considered there was only a possibility of re-offending, or a remote possibility, he would have reached the same conclusion. He could not exclude the possibility of further offending because he considered it likely that the applicant would re-offend. The Minister may have reached a different conclusion if his inability to exclude the possibility of further offending was based on something significantly less than a finding of a likelihood of re-offending.