Flooding
23 It is common ground that two kinds of flood potentially affect the site. One is a flash flood from the creek. For this there is little warning time, so evacuation would not be possible. However, the duration of such floods is less than an hour. The second kind of flood is a lake flood. For this there is a warning system, the warning time is about 24 hours and the rate of rise of floodwaters is modest. The duration of peak flood is less than a day.
24 The council's case was that the site was subject to flooding and therefore not suitable for the proposed use. The applicant's case was that the floor levels were above the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) and therefore residents would be able to wait out floods in their dwellings. Emergency evacuations could be achieved by vehicles that could pass through Koona Street, which itself would be flooded. It was common ground that, in a 1:100 event, ordinary sedans would not be able to pass through Koona Street.
25 The council's hydraulic expert was Mr E Rigby, while the applicant's was Mr P Nichols, both of them hydrologists. The two hydrologists were joined in concurrent evidence by Mr S Opper, the Director of Emergency Management, State Emergency Services. Mr Rigby and Mr Nichols agreed that, relying on the DCP's terminology, approximately two thirds of the site is in the High Risk Precinct, while the remainder (near Koona Street) is in the Medium Risk Precinct.
26 It was common ground between Mr Rigby and Mr Nichols that the proposal did not meet all the requirements of council's DCP. In Mr Nichols' opinion, the State government's FPDM should take precedence over the council's DCP, where these two documents are inconsistent. Mr Rigby accepts this, though he does not agree that the two documents are inconsistent in intent. I find it difficult to make a judgment on this aspect of the dispute, because the terminology used to describe the level of risk in the two documents is different, so that comparison is difficult. It is true that, as Mr Nichols points out, the DCP is directed towards preventing development on flood-liable sites, while the FPDM tends towards balancing flood risk with the economic development of land.
27 Mr Nichols, who relied on the FPDM, considered the risk posed by the proposal acceptable for the following reasons:
· That part of the site that adjoins Koona Street was low true flood hazard. All habitable floors of the development were above the PMF level. Residents can stay in their dwellings during floods, which will last less than 24 hours. Flash floods from the creek, for which little warning can be provided, would last less than an hour.
· Mass evacuation of residents will not be required as the development will be a safe refuge even in the PMF event.
· For lake flooding, the flood warning system will provide adequate notice to enable evacuation of selected residents.
· The permanently assigned 10-seater bus can negotiate a water depth of 0.8m. This would enable access in the 1:100 event (though not in the PMF).
· 24-hour nursing care, resuscitation equipment and back-to-base communication to the aged-care operator are provided on the site.
· While there would be no access in floods greater than the 1:100 event, such an event would result also in the closure of most regional roads in the Illawarra. The probability of the PMF occurring is very low.
· The risk to people and property complies with the FPDM.
28 Mr Rigby took issue with Mr Nichols on the following grounds:
· The proposal breaches numerous provisions of the DCP, in essence those that militate against intensification of use on High Flood Risk Precincts.
· In particular the DCP warns against aged-care accommodation in areas that are considered appropriate for general housing (section G6.3). It also suggests that increasing the density of development on the floodplain will, without careful management of flood risk through appropriate land use planning, lead to increased flood damage exposure.
· The FPDM does not provide a basis for assessing development applications. Rather it requires the preparation of Floodplain Risk Assessment Plans against which such applications can be assessed. The DCP is an attempt to prepare such a plan.
29 Mr Opper strongly opposed the development. His reasons were:
· Mass evacuation in the 1:100 event would be difficult.
· Evacuation in the PMF by vehicle would not be possible.
· The site would become an isolated island unsuitable for old people who may need help urgently.
· Residents may panic in floods and try and leave the site in their cars, which cannot negotiate Koona Street in the 1:100 event. Alternatively, they may want to return home during floods.
30 In Mr Opper's opinion, the site is unsuitable for any kind of development.
31 The task of assessing the above evidence (which I have quoted only in summary) is one of balancing the risk of developing a flood-liable site against the economic loss of sterilising it. I note that the site is zoned residential. While this fact does not excuse it from being assessed for flood risk, in an ideal world a council would not zone a site residential if it considers it unsuitable for development, which is Mr Opper's opinion. The question for the Court is to assess the risk posed by this proposal and to consider it in the context of risks that society accepts in other aspects of human activity.
32 The council's DCP contains numerous objectives and performance criteria that would suggest the site is unsuitable for medium density housing occupied by old people. Against this must be set the many safeguards that the applicant has incorporated in its proposal in order to reduce the risks to acceptable levels.
33 As mentioned above, two kinds of flood potentially affect the site. In a flash flood from the creek, evacuation would not be possible. However, the duration of such floods is short and the likelihood that someone would have to be evacuated within just the critical hour is very small. The residents would stay within the buildings on floor levels above the PMF level.
34 In a lake flood the warning time is adequate to evacuate anyone likely to need medical care. In the 1:100 year event evacuation by the bus assigned exclusively to this project would be possible, though ordinary cars will not be able to negotiate Koona Street. I note that ordinary cars cannot negotiate many other roads in the region in the 1:100 event.
35 In all events, including the PMF event, residents will be able to stay on the site. The length of isolation is less than 24 hours. Elementary medical equipment and nursing care is available on the site at all times. The only real risk seems to me a PMF event compounded by a resident needing to be evacuated just during such an event.
36 Various figures were quoted for the likelihood of the PMF event, ranging from one in a million years to one in 19,000 years. Even if all these estimates are wrong, and the chance of a PMF event is one in a thousand years, the risk remains very small. It is a level of risk that society accepts in all other aspects of human activity.
37 In my opinion, the flood liability of the site is not a reason for refusal.