WHAT IF I AM WRONG?
8 The Applicant contended that the Tribunal should have asked itself the question, "what if I am wrong?" The possibility of asking such a question is the third level of refinement of the actual language of the Convention.
9 The basis for Australia affording protection to somebody in the position of the Applicant is that the Applicant has a well founded fear of being persecuted for Convention reasons. In Chan v The Minister for Immigration & Ethnic Affairs (1989) 169 CLR 379, Mason CJ said (at 389) that he agreed with the conclusion reached by McHugh J that:
"a fear of persecution is 'well founded' if there is a real chance that the refugee will be persecuted if he returns to his country of nationality."
Thus the first level of refinement of 'well founded' is that there must be "a real chance" of persecution.
10 The term 'real chance' has then been further refined. The current state of that refinement insofar as it is binding on me is probably to be found in Thevendram v The Minister for Immigration & Multicultural Affairs [1999] FCA 182. After referring to the reasons of Kirby J in Minister for Immigration & Ethnic Affairs v Wu Shan Liang (1996) 185 CLR 259,the Full Court went on to say that:
"It can be taken to be established that consideration by the RRT of whether a certain finding of fact was right or wrong:
· is mandatory in respect of facts found on the basis that they are 'slightly more probable than not' […];
· is unnecessary when it appears that the RRT is of the view that the probability of error in its findings in relation to those fact was insignificant."
11 In that case, the Court considered that it was apparent that the Tribunal had no real doubt as to the correctness of its findings. From that, one might conclude that the third level of refinement of 'well founded' is that the Tribunal must either have no real doubt or be of the view that the possibility of error in its conclusions is insignificant.
12 The Applicant contended in this case that, upon examination of the reasons of the Tribunal, the Tribunal had not reached its conclusions with the necessary degree of certainty. It is desirable, therefore, to say something about the reasons given by the Tribunal for the conclusion which it reached in relation to the Applicant's application for review.
13 It is significant that under the topic "Reasons for Decision" the Tribunal indicated its awareness of the test laid down by the High Court in Chan's Case. The Tribunal said as follows:
"To be eligible for a protection visa an applicant must be afraid to return to his or her country of nationality and there must be a real chance that he or she will face serious harm or discrimination or an abuse of their fundamental human rights in that country within the reasonably foreseeable future.
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The threat of harm need not be the product of government policy or activity; it may be enough that a government is unwilling or unable to protect them from persecution. […] In cases where the risk of persecution only exists in a particular area of the applicant's country of nationality, they will not be considered to be in need of international protection unless it is unreasonable to expect them to relocate to an area where they are not at risk of persecution." [emphasis added]
14 The Tribunal then referred specifically to the judgment of Sir Anthony Mason and of Dawson, Toohey and McHugh JJ in Chan's Case in relation to the concept of what was referred to as "well founded fear and real chance". That indicates an awareness in express terms on the part of the Tribunal of the task before it.
15 Later on in the reasons, the Tribunal made the following observation:
"After considering all of the evidence, I have concluded that Mr Mohamed fled Somalia to avoid the general violence of the civil war. […] It is not enough of itself to be outside one's country owing to a well founded fear of war or civil unrest. This is not to suggest that groups or individuals cannot be persecuted in a Convention sense during times of civil war or communal violence.
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However, for an applicant fleeing a situation of communal violence or civil war to come within the scope of the Convention, there must be evidence he or she faces a real chance of facing some form of selective harassment for a Convention reason."
16 After setting out its findings in relation to the background to the Applicant's application and the position generally in Somalia, the Tribunal made an assessment of the Applicant's claims. It accepted that the Applicant is a member of the Abrahim sub-clan. It also accepted that he was forced to flee Mogadishu in 1991 and that his family lived in Dobley and then in Kismayo and that he left Somalia in the manner asserted in 1998. However, for the reasons which the Tribunal set out thereafter, the Tribunal did not believe that the Applicant had been at risk of harm from General Morgan since 1994 because of the formation of the Somali Youth Movement. Nor did the Tribunal accept that the Abrahim sub-clan was at risk of harm because of General Morgan, nor that the Applicant himself was at risk of harm because he was General Morgan's cousin. The Tribunal was not satisfied that the Applicant was involved in the group called the Somali Youth Movement. There is no complaint about that finding in the application to this Court.
17 The Tribunal then considered the question of the Applicant's membership of the Abrahim clan and his relationship to General Morgan. The Tribunal expressed a conclusion as follows:
"However I do not accept that he was singled out for attack by the Marehan militia when they attacked Kismayo last year because of his clan or his relationship to General Morgan, nor that he or members of his clan have been singled out for animosity or harm by other clans in the Kismayo area in the manner claimed in his submissions."
18 The Tribunal then gave some reasons for that conclusion. The Tribunal found the Applicant's evidence, regarding the problems which he claimed to have experienced in 1998, unconvincing. Next, the Tribunal found that none of the sources suggested that the Abrahim sub-clan had been singled out for attack by other Majeerteen clans, the Marehan or anyone else who opposed General Morgan since 1991. The Tribunal was unable to find any mention of the Abrahim clan in any of the sources consulted except on diagrams setting out clan structures.
19 The Tribunal referred to a paper prepared for the Canadian Immigration and Refugee Board in 1995. That report indicated that the most consistent victims of conflict were small farmers of the area, the Bantu minorities, who had no organised militias and thus were largely defenceless. The Tribunal considered that it was significant that in that report no mention was made of the Abrahim sub-clan, nor was there any suggestion that any Majeerteen sub-clans or people close to General Morgan were particularly at risk.
20 In its ultimate conclusion, the Tribunal said:
"However, after considering all the evidence, I am not satisfied that he or his sub-clan have faced selective harassment for a Convention reason in the Kismayo area of Somalia."
21 The Applicant's complaint is that the language used in those conclusions is that the Tribunal was "unconvinced" or "not satisfied" and that there was no express finding that the alleged acts of persecution in 1998 did not occur. It was asserted that the findings run together the question of whether those facts occurred, on the one hand, and whether, if they did occur, they were for a Convention reason. I do not consider that that matters. In circumstances where the Tribunal expressly indicated the criterion for determining whether or not there was a well founded fear, I do not consider that the language of the reasons exhibits any doubt as to that conclusion.
22 Accordingly, I do not consider that this contention should be accepted. The Tribunal has made a finding in unequivocal terms that it did not accept that the Applicant was singled out for attack because of his clan, nor that he or members of his clan had been singled our for animosity in the manner claimed in his submissions. "The manner in which he claimed" were the particular assertions of violence in 1998.
23 The instances of persecution which the Applicant claimed might be summarised as follows:
(1) In 1992 his younger brother had been killed by members of the Ogaden clan because he was a cousin of General Morgan and a member of the Abrahim sub-clan.
(2) In 1992 the Applicant was visited at his house by the Ogaden militia, shot in the leg and threatened with torture.
(3) Following the departure of the United Nations forces from Kismayo in 1995, General Morgan warned the Applicant to cease his activities.
(4) In 1998 there was conflict in Kismayo between General Morgan and the Marehan clan which then targeted the Abrahim sub-clan. The Marehan killed the Applicant's uncle, raped his uncle's daughter and abducted and beat the Applicant's son.
24 The first two matters were effectively accepted by the Tribunal. It is the fourth matter which was critical. I consider that a fair reading of the passage from the reasons which I have quoted above, namely that the Applicant was not singled out for animosity in the manner claimed in his submissions, is a clear rejection of the alleged persecution in 1998. That is precisely the finding which the Tribunal made as I have indicated, namely, that the evidence regarding the problems which he claims to have experienced in 1998 was unconvincing. I would therefore reject the application on that ground.