[263] Mr Horsburgh approached the valuation by selecting sales in his area of comparison which were the urban renewal areas stretching from Highgate Hill and West End, through the CBD to Fortitude Valley and to Newstead. To that end he identified sales of development sites located in the urban renewal area within a 3 km radius of the Brisbane CBD.
[264] The features of the subject land emphasized by Mr Horsburgh in his oral evidence were that it was river front land (although there was a buffer between the land and the river) and it was an "island site". He saw a commonality with large development sites where developers were seeking to put together a large island of space that then relaxed the town planning environment because neighbours were not involved.
[265] Mr Horsburgh chose as his sales, properties which have characteristics similar to the subject site. The best sales, he said, were large sites in traditional industrial use areas with multi-staged high density commercial office development proposals. His selection of comparable sales was dictated by the size of the land and the development capacity and he also had regard to construction costs and market rents. In Mr Horsburgh's opinion, the productive capacity (plot ratio) of a particular site was the primary consideration which a purchaser would have in mind at the time of purchase.
[266] Mr Horsburgh had therefore chosen plot ratio as the crucial feature in his sales reconciliation. He thought that, rather than looking at smaller adjustments such as for contamination and piling infrastructure charges, the most significant point of difference was the productive capacity or the plot ratio differential.
[267] Relying on the reports by Thomson Adsett Architects and Buckley Vann Planning Consultants, Mr Horsburgh had determined that the maximum code assessable plot ratio for the subject site was 8.1:1. However, for the purpose of his valuation report, he adopted a plot ratio of 7. This was in recognition of the unique characteristics of the land - a very large undeveloped site in a high density planning precinct. He was also aware that in moving from the CBD towards either West End or Newstead there was a general town planning approach of reducing the plot ratio as the size of the sites increases in the industrial areas. Rather than reducing the dollars per GFA down to account for that, he considered that the more realistic approach was that a developer would adopt a smaller plot ratio of, in this case 7.1. All his discussions with development managers of the comparable sales properties showed that development capacity was the crucial issue.
[268] Mr Horsburgh said that an analysis of his sales showed that the rate per square metre of land ranged from approximately $4,000/m² to $6,000/m² up to approximately $6,000/m² to $11,000/ m², depending on land area, productive capacity and ripeness for development. The more comparable sites indicated a narrower range of approximately $4,500/m² to $8,000/m². A large amount of the variation was explained by the different productive capacity differential applied. For a plot ratio of 7, his analyses showed a range from $4,500/m² to $8,000/m². His analyses also showed that as land size increases the rate per square metre of land decreased. Similarly, as the land size increased, the potential development intensity dropped reflecting different planning attitudes in the traditionally industrial areas where large sites were available. Accordingly, the dollar value per square metre of GFA decreased.
[269] Based on the features of comparison mentioned above, Mr Horsburgh adopted a rate per square metre of land of $5,500. On that basis the value of the subject land before resumption was $48,537,500.
[270] Mr Horsburgh also analysed his comparable sales on a rate per square metre of GFA. The GFA used for each sale was that which investigation showed was reasonably expected to be achieved at the time of sale. Where available, Mr Horsburgh relied on the plot ratios used by development managers in their feasibility studies during the purchase. Mr Horsburgh's sales analysis revealed an analysed rate per GFA ranging from $600 to $1,200 depending on condition of sale, pedigree of development application and plot ratio. He said that the more comparable sites indicated a narrower range of approximately $800 to $900. Mr Horsburgh adopted a unit value per GFA of $850. On this basis he calculated the value of the subject land before resumption at $52,508,750 (61,775 m² GFA at $850 per m² of GFA).
[271] Mr Horsburgh has not applied the results of his sales analyses directly to the subject land. Rather, he adjusted the analysed sales figures to show what would have been paid for each sale property if a plot ratio of 7:1 (being his adopted plot ratio, as explained above) were applied. I do not consider that the prudent purchaser would accept that this valuation methodology can be used to value the subject land. Mr Horsburgh's approach is not a recognized valuation methodology and it involves averaging which, it is well recognized, is not a valid methodology. Such a purchaser is unlikely, therefore, to consider that Mr Horsburgh's methodology demonstrates a market value for the subject land. However the prudent purchaser may consider that Mr Horsburgh's principal sales, analysed in an orthodox way, may be relevant to the subject valuation.
[272] Mr Horsburgh identified three sales as particularly relevant to this valuation because they were larger than the subject site in size, they were in an urban renewal area and they were master planned, multi-staged commercial office developments with development capacities ranging from 40,000 to 59,000 m² of GFA. His graph shows two GFA figures for each of his main sales. He relied on the higher figure in each case which represented what was actually achieved by the developer following an impact assessment approval after the developer had acquired the site. The difference between the two figures represents the owner's profit. He did not consider that it was necessary to draw a distinction between a code assessable and an impact assessable application.
[273] Mr Horsburgh's sale 1 is a property at 150 - 180 Breakfast Creek Road, Newstead which sold on 24 November 2006 for $40,000,000. The site has an area of 19,863 m². The property has an extended frontage to Breakfast Creek Road and frontages to four other streets. Breakfast Creek Road is an arterial road which provides good vehicular access. The property is contaminated with copper lead and zinc, acid sulphate and radioactive sands. The purchaser proposed to develop an office park on the site of 7 buildings. Mr Horsburgh had been advised by the purchaser's development manager that the plot ratio used in their feasibility study was 2.5:1. An application lodged in April 2008 was ultimately approved at a plot ratio of 2.30:1. Mr Horsburgh adopted a plot ratio of 2.1 as the maximum plot ratio a prudent purchaser would have considered to be potentially achievable. He analysed the sale of the whole site to $2,014 per m² of land and $1,007 per m² of GFA.
[274] Part of the site (approximately 3,882 m²) was the subject of a contract of sale with the ABC in late 2007 which showed a rate of $3,977/m² land. The contract was subsequently cancelled by the ABC because of concerns about radiation contamination. It was understood that legal action followed.
[275] Mr Johnston said that he would treat the sale with a great deal of caution because there were a number of issues that arose. One was the location of the property on a main arterial road with an extended frontage and four street boundaries. The site is a gateway into and out of the City. In his view it was a superior property in terms of location but to be weighed against that were the contamination and the low water table which exists in the area. There was potential for the contamination to extend off the site onto surrounding properties.
[276] Mr Horsburgh's sale 2, Waterloo Junction, is located at 4-12 Commercial Road, Newstead. The property has an area of 14,112 m² and is made up of a number of individual lots which were sold between July 2006 and April 2007. The total price was $44,544,899. Mr Horsburgh analysed the amalgamated site to $3,157 per m² of land. He was advised by the development manager of the purchaser that the plot ratio used in their feasibility study was between 3 and 3.5:1. The development application represented an overall plot ratio of 2.5. Mr Horsburgh concluded that a prudent purchaser would have considered a plot ratio of 2.5 to be potentially achievable and on that basis he analysed the sale price to $1,283 per m² of GFA.
[277] The property is bounded by Commercial Road, Stratton and Ann Streets with a large frontage to Ann Street. The Waterloo Hotel which was on one of the sites, was included in the sale. The hotel is heritage listed and the sale also included the hotel licence.
[278] In Mr Johnston's opinion the property was superior to the subject property for a number of reasons. The sale property included the heritage hotel and the licence. The site was opposite a prime location in the Emporium precinct, there is good traffic flow, good access and good public transport.
[279] Mr Horsburgh did not accept that an adjustment should have been made because the price paid for the site represented not only the land which was available for redevelopment but also the hotel with the liquor licence. He said that he did not look at it that way because the hotel being heritage listed would have to remain and it would be difficult to build around.
[280] Mr Horsburgh withdrew his sale 4, and his sale 5 was 144 Montague Road, discussed above.
[281] Mr Horsburgh's sale 6 is 395 St Paul's Terrace, Fortitude Valley which has an area of 1,695 m². The contract of sale was executed on 13 September 2007 and settled in January 2008. Mr Horsburgh analysed the sale to $5,646 per m² and, adopting a plot ratio of 6.4:1, the maximum plot ratio that in his opinion a prudent purchaser would have considered as achievable, to $941 per m² of GFA. The property is located in Fortitude Valley, opposite the Brunswick Street railway station. It has two street access. At the date of sale, the site was improved with a 3 storey commercial building which was tenanted.
[282] Mr Johnston said that the sale was in a far superior location as compared with the subject and the sale was a far smaller site. He would not rely on it as a comparable sale because of its location.
[283] Mr Horsburgh's sale 7 is a property at 949 Ann Street, Fortitude Valley of 1,525 m². The property was sold in December 2006 with settlement in July 2008. Mr Horsburgh analysed the sale to $6,492 per m² of land and to 1,042 m² of GFA having adopted a plot ratio of 6.2:1 on the same bases as the other sales.
[284] The site is located in Fortitude Valley opposite the Emporium development and is a corner site bounded by Ann and Chester Streets. The frontage to Ann Street provides good exposure to traffic and good vehicular access. The site was improved with buildings and awnings and used as a car sales yard.
[285] Mr Johnston said that the sale is located in the hub of the Valley on the back of the very popular James Street precinct. The sale had resale potential. Mr Johnston had no knowledge of the contract or the reason for the length of time between contract and date of settlement. In Mr Johnston's view the sale was superior to the subject.
[286] Mr Horsburgh acknowledged that he had not placed a lot of reliance on his sales 8 and 9 because they were residential developments. He had included them because he was looking for sales of large site areas.
[287] Of his other sales, he said that he had tried not to place too much relevance on one sale over the other. They had varying factors of comparability. Ausenco was nice because it is a fairly large site close to the subject. Newstead Circle was not ideal because it is much further away but it has the commonality of being an island and the consequent planning flexibility. Generally, Mr Horsburgh said, he would place less reliance on the smaller site sales.