CONSIDERATION
17 In our view, the learned trial Judge was right to conclude that the Tribunal proceeded on the basis that there was a dichotomy between fighting "aimed at establishing or maintaining power or establishing control over land or resources" (which his Honour referred to as "traditional warfare") and persecution for a Refugees Convention reason. In other words, the Tribunal approached the question by regarding the two alternatives as mutually exclusive. A natural reading of the Tribunal's reasons, set out in par 10 above, indicates that the Tribunal considered that it followed from the independent evidence that the opposing clans were fighting over the control of north-west Somalia, that there could be no persecution of members of the Habr Yunis sub-clan for a Refugees Convention reason. This interpretation is reinforced by the Tribunal's reliance on a quotation from the UNHCR Handbook, par 164, suggesting that
"[p]ersons compelled to leave their country of origin as a result of international or national armed conflicts are not normally considered [to be] refugees…".
18 The Tribunal did not ask whether the clan-based fighting, accepting that it related to control over north-west Somalia, had an objective additional to the acquisition or control of territory, or whether the objectives of the fighting might be indirectly advanced by acts likely to be destructive of the morale of members of Ms Jama's sub-clan. This could be the case, for example, if acts were directed at non-combatant sub-clan members. In short, the Tribunal did not ask whether the clan-based conflict gave rise to a real chance that members of the sub-clan, including Ms Jama, would be singled out for persecutory treatment because of their clan membership.
19 Full Courts of this Court in Abdalla v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs (1998) 51 ALD 11, at 20, and Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs v Abdi (1999) 87 FCR 280, at par 38, have held that no dichotomy of the kind referred to in par 17 above exists. Each of the decisions was published after the date of the Tribunal's decision and so could not have been taken into account by the Tribunal. On 10 September 1999, the High Court granted special leave to appeal in Abdi, in part because the Full Court declined to follow the reasoning of the House of Lords in Adan v Secretary of State for the Home Department [1999] 1 AC 293. However, it was not contended that it would be appropriate for this Court to decline to follow the approach taken by the Full Court in Abdi.
20 In Abdalla, at 20-21, the Full Court said:
"The decision in respect of whether recurring communal violence amounts to 'persecution' depends on whether there is a purpose behind the recurring pattern which is referrable to a Convention ground. In the present case, the tribunal has found that the frequent fighting against the Marehan clan is partly based on settling long standing scores dating back to the Siad Barre regime and partly based on competition for territory. In so far as the threatened oppression arises from the settling of scores with the Marehan as a clan, it can be concluded that the fighting was directed to them as a group which had the former president as a member. This, in our view, is within the concept of persecution. Competition for territory, depending on the circumstances, may also lead to persecution. … Much will depend on the purposes for which the war is being fought. For example, if it is fought to eliminate or punish members of another clan, it may amount to 'persecution' for a Convention reason. …. It is not correct to proceed on the basis that because a fear arises within a recurring pattern of communal violence in a civil war context therefore it cannot amount to 'persecution' for a Convention reason."
21 In Abdi, the Full Court said, at pars 37 and 38:
"In approaching the question of persecution in the context of a civil war, it is important to keep firmly in mind the wording of the Convention definition. The definition makes no reference to any different approach being adopted where the persecution exists in the context of civil war. There is no exclusion. The relevant question raised by the language of the definition requires a determination, on the evidence, of whether the harm or detriment is for a Convention reason. …. The evidence must … disclose a Convention connection between the persecution of the applicant or the clan to which he belongs and the risk of harm. This in turn calls for a consideration, so far as can be determined on the evidence, as to the purpose and nature of the war, the way it is conducted, and the objectives sought to be achieved by the war.
In relation to Adan, we do not accept that a clan or race based war cannot, without some further and differential degree of risk, amount to persecution in the sense that an individual is selected out for persecution treatment because he is a member of a particular clan. If evidence establishes, for example, that the objective of a war is to harm the opposing party for one or more Conventionreasons, then 'persecution' will be made out. It is somewhat odd to suggest that claimants are precluded from refugee status solely on the ground, for example, that a conflict based on race or religion which gives rise to the fear, can be described as a 'war'. The task of the decision-maker in these circumstances must be to investigate the reasons underlying the war and the way it is conducted in order to ascertain whether it is based on a Conventionground or has an objective which is covered by the Convention, namely: race, religion or other stated reason. This responsibility cannot be curtailed by a conclusion that there is a state of war."
22 In our view, his Honour correctly concluded that the decision of the Tribunal involved an error of law, being an error involving an incorrect interpretation of the applicable law (s 476(1)(e) of the Act). The Tribunal did not seek to determine, as the authorities now make plain that it should have, whether having regard to the purpose and nature of the clan-based warfare, the way it is conducted and the objectives sought to be achieved by the warfare, it was satisfied that Ms Jama's fear of persecution for reasons of her clan membership was well-founded.
23 There is a second and independent reason for holding that the Tribunal made an error of law. The Tribunal stated the general principles governing the construction of the Refugees Conventionin unexceptionable terms. Yet when considering whether Ms Jama's subjective fear of persecution by reason of her membership of the Habr Yunis sub-clan was well-founded, the Tribunal made findings which appear to be limited to past events. Thus in the passage already quoted, the Tribunal concluded that the "opposing clans are fighting over the control of North West Somalia" and that there was no evidence "that supports the view that the…subclan is being persecuted for a [Refugees] Convention reason" (emphasis added). Later the Tribunal accepted independent evidence "that clan members may stay in safety in their own clan areas and that stability as well as law and order have returned to most of the territory".
24 Chan v Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs (1989) 169 CLR 379 makes it clear that a logical starting point for the consideration of whether an applicant's fear of persecution is a well-founded fear is provided by the circumstances giving rise to his or her fear (Mason CJ, at 387; Dawson J, at 399; Toohey J, at 405 and 408; Gaudron J, at 413-415; McHugh, at 429). However, the objective facts to be considered in reaching a determination as to whether the applicant's fear is well-founded are not confined to those which induced the fear. A judgment must be made as to what may happen in the future, including any change in current circumstances. The crucial question is whether the applicant's fear of future persecution for a Refugees Conventionreason is well-founded. There may be no current risk of persecution on a Refugees Conventionground, yet a change in circumstances may readily be foreseen that would create a significant risk of persecution on such a ground.
25 Chan also makes clear that a fear may be well-founded even though persecution is unlikely (see especially per Gaudron J, at 415, and McHugh J, at 429). Consideration must be given to whether there is a real chance that the applicant will be persecuted for a Refugees Conventionreason if he or she returns to the country of his or her nationality. A real chance may be less than a fifty per cent and may perhaps be as low as a ten per cent chance (see Chan, especially per Mason CJ, at 389, and McHugh J, at 429).
26 Ms Jama claimed before the Tribunal that her clan was being targeted in north-west Somalia by the ruling clan in that area. She indicated that, for this reason, she feared being killed or raped because of her clan membership. The Tribunal accepted "that Somalia is in a state of civil war and that much of it is clan-based with shifting alliances." The Tribunal also found that there were "continuing skirmishes" between clans in and around Hargeisa, but that any fights were "shortlived and quite local". The Tribunal referred to, but did not comment on, evidence of a background paper prepared by the UNHCR in October 1996 which accepted that
"throughout the Somali conflict, rape has been used as a weapon of war by all the factions to punish rival ethnic factions". (Emphasis added.)
Those women most at risk were said to be the internally displaced, those who lacked the protection of powerful clan structures and those of minority clans.
27 It is of some importance that the submission to the Tribunal made on behalf of Ms Jama specifically argued that, although there had been improvement in conditions in some areas of Somalia, it could not be said that the improvements were so substantial and durable as to remove any risk to Ms Jama should she return to Somalia. The submission contended that, even if the situation in the north-west had become generally stable, there was more than a remote chance that Ms Jama would face persecution in the future by reason of her membership of the Habr Yunis sub-clan.
28 The Tribunal recorded the substance of this submission, but did not address it. The reasons of the Tribunal demonstrate that it considered the evidence touching on the extent and purpose of the fighting between clans in north-west Somalia at and before the date of the decision. But there is nothing to show that the Tribunal directed its attention to the circumstances likely to prevail in north-west Somalia (the self-declared Republic of Somaliland) in the foreseeable future.
29 In particular, the Tribunal did not consider whether the fluid situation it described (even if relatively stable by Somali standards), might change so as to expose Ms Jama to a real chance that she would suffer serious harm by reason of her clan membership. As evidence cited by the Tribunal itself showed, the Republic of Somaliland in 1997 had rejected the so-called Sodere agreement which called for the reunification of Somalia. It was under pressure from other Somali factions to renounce its bid for secession. In these circumstances, bearing in mind that the relative stability in north-west Somalia involved "continuing skirmishes" between clan fighters, it might have been thought that the prevailing conditions were not guaranteed to continue unchanged. And if they changed for the worse, Ms Jama might have been thought to be at risk of serious harm inflicted by reason of her membership of her sub-clan.
30 Of course, none of this is to suggest that the Tribunal was bound on the evidence to make any such finding. But a fair reading of the Tribunal's reasons indicates that it failed to address the question. In this respect, there is a contrast between its reasons for rejecting Ms Jama's claim that she had a well-founded fear of persecution as a member of a particular social group comprising single females without protection, and those for rejecting her claim to have a well-founded fear of persecution as a member of her sub-clan. The Tribunal specifically found that there was no real chance that Ms Jama would be persecuted for reasons of her being a single female without protection. It made no such specific finding about the chances of future persecution as a member of her sub-clan.
31 The failure of the Tribunal to give proper consideration to whether Ms Jama has a well-founded fear of persecution on grounds of her clan membership should she return to Somalia renders irrelevant, in our view, the somewhat curiously expressed finding of the Tribunal, referred to in par 12 above, concerning the availability of protection to the applicant in north-west Somalia. The issue for the Tribunal's determination was whether her established subjective fear of persecution for reasons of her clan membership was well-founded. The likely availability of protection from either her clan or the interim government upon her return to Somalia was a factor, but not necessarily in a strife-torn country, a decisive factor, in the determination of that issue.
32 The Tribunal's failure to consider the circumstances that might prevail after Ms Jama's return to Somalia (should she not be granted a protection visa) involved a further error of the kind referred to in s 476(1)(e) of the Act.
33 For the above reasons, the appeal should be dismissed with costs.
I certify that the preceding thirty-three (33) numbered paragraphs are a true copy of the Reasons for Judgment herein of the Honourable Justices Branson & Sackville.