Application of "What if I am wrong" test
24 In Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs v Rajalingam [1999] FCA 719; (1999) 56 ald 43, Sackville J (with whom North J agreed, Kenny J in separate reasons taking a similar approach) discussed the principles to be applied when it is claimed that a Tribunal should have considered the possibility that its findings of primary facts were wrong, before reaching an affirmative conclusion that an applicant did not have a well-founded fear of persecution. His Honour made these observations in paras 60-64:
It follows from the observations of the High Court in Wu Shan Liang and Guo that there are circumstances in which the RRT must take into account the possibility that alleged past events occurred even though it finds that those events probably did not occur. This result, perhaps surprising at first glance, comes about because the ultimate question before the RRT is whether it is satisfied that the applicant has a well-founded fear of future persecution, in the sense of having a "real substantial basis" for the fear. The RRT must not foreclose reasonable speculation about the chances of the hypothetical future event occurring.
The RRT performs its fact-finding task as an administrative decision-maker. Although the civil standard of proof is not irrelevant to the process, the RRT cannot simply apply that standard to all fact-finding. Moreover, the RRT must frequently make its assessment on the basis of fragmented, incomplete and confused information. It has to assess the plausibility of accounts given by people who may be understandably bewildered, frightened and, perhaps, desperate and who often do not understand either the process or the language spoken by the decision-maker/investigator. As Gummow and Hayne JJ remarked in Ex parte Abebe (at par 191):
"[i]t is necessary always to bear in mind that an applicant for refugee status is, on one view of events, engaged in an often desperate battle for freedom, if not life itself."
Even applicants with a genuine fear of persecution may not present as models of consistency or transparent veracity.
In this context, it is not always possible for the decision-maker to be satisfied as to whether alleged past events have occurred with certainty or even confidence. When the RRT is uncertain as to whether an alleged event occurred, or finds that, although the probabilities are against it, the event might have occurred, it may be necessary to take into account the possibility that the event took place in considering the ultimate question. Depending on the significance of the alleged event to the ultimate question, a failure to consider the possibility that it occurred might constitute a failure to undertake the required reasonable speculation in deciding whether there is a "real substantial basis" for the applicant's claimed fear of persecution. Similarly, if the non-occurrence of an event is important to an applicant's case (for example, the withdrawal of a threat to the applicant) the possibility that the event did not occur may need to be considered by the decision-maker even though the latter considers the disputed event probably did occur.
Although the "What if I am wrong?" terminology has gained currency, I think, with respect, that it is more accurate to see the requirement discussed in Wu Shan Liang and Guo as simply an aspect of the obligation to apply correctly the principles for determining whether an applicant has a "well-founded fear of being persecuted" for a Convention reason. The reasonable speculation in which the decision-maker must engage may require him or her to take account of the chance that past events might have occurred, even though the decision-maker thinks that they probably did not. In the language of s 476(1)(e) of the Migration Act, a failure to do so may constitute "an error involving an incorrect interpretation of the applicable law or an incorrect application of the law to the facts as found".
In my view, there is no reason in principle, and nothing in the reasoning of the High Court, supporting a general rule that the RRT must express findings as to whether alleged past events actually occurred in a manner that makes explicit its degree of conviction or confidence that the findings are correct. In Guo itself, the findings were not expressed this way, yet the joint judgment considered it was enough that the RRT appeared to have no doubt that the probability of error was insignificant. Moreover, had the Court intended to impose such an extraordinary burden on the RRT, it might have been expected to say so.
25 I respectfully adopt his Honour's approach, as correctly analysing the so-called "what if I am wrong?" test as part of the reasoning process upon which the Tribunal must engage if it is correctly to apply the law. A failure to do so becomes an error of law which is susceptible to review under s 476(1)(e).
26 The question in this case is then, do the Tribunal's reasons reveal that it had any doubt of the correctness of its findings of primary fact so that it failed properly to consider the likelihood that the applicant might, in the future, suffer persecution for a Convention reason? On behalf of the applicant, the submission was made that the Tribunal's reasons were affected by an objective level of uncertainty because it rejected much of the applicant's evidence as not credible, and because it failed to take the opportunity to remove that uncertainty by undertaking further inquiries. However, the applicant was unable to point to any part of the Tribunal's reasons which indicated the requisite degree of doubt about findings it actually made. In essence, the applicant alleges a reviewable error based on the Tribunal's failure to ask what he says it should have asked. To entertain this ground of review would be to trespass impermissibly into review on the merits of the Tribunal's decision.
27 This is not to say, however, that a Tribunal may insulate its decision from review, simply by eliminating from its findings of fact all expressions suggestive of doubt. Resort to that technique might well found a review based on a defect in the reasons themselves.