15 Having considered the appellant's claims, and independent evidence concerning Somalia, the Tribunal concluded:
"The totality of the material before me, including the Applicant's evidence and the independent evidence referred to in this decision, leads me to conclude that the harm the Applicant fears is not persecution for reasons of his membership of the Rahanwein clan or his subclan of themselves but rather unsystematic warfare because of "the instability, anarchy and murderous shiftings witnessed today in the Somali scene". These shifting allegiances are the consequence of power struggles between clans and subclans, including the Applicant's own Rahanwein clan and the Digil subclan to which his further subclan the Dabarre belong. Against this background today's foes can be tomorrow's allies. The Applicant's representative has agreed, "today's friend is tomorrow's enemy" and conceded that the head of the Applicant's sub clan could possibly have been in an alliance with Aideed at one time and been killed by him after that alliance ended.
In this context of shifting allegiances it is difficult to identify any particular clan or sub-clan which can be regarded as being the victims of systematic persecution by any other group or groups, or as being subject to a differential impact which is over and above the ordinary risks of clan warfare. Members of the Hawiye subclans, the Marehan and Ogaden subclans of the Darod and members of any other clan or subclan in that area are equally potential victims of the civil unrest in a pattern of shifting allegiances in the southern area of Somalia.
What emerges from all the evidence is a picture of the ordinary risks of clan warfare, largely involving struggles for power and resources, in a context of instability and anarchy. Members of all clans and subclans in this tragic turmoil are at risk and, while some may be more vulnerable than others, none of the material before me points to circumstances which would convert the conflict into persecution. I am unable to discern anything in the experiences of the Applicant, or his clan, the Rahanwein, or his sub-clan, the Dabarre, would could be regarded as part of a course of systematic conduct aimed at members of either group, including the Applicant, for reasons of their membership of the group."
The matters argued on the appeal
16 It was contended that that passage demonstrates two errors of law on the part of the Tribunal. The first is an incorrect application of the law to the facts as found by the Tribunal, contrary to s 476(1)(e), and the second is an incorrect interpretation of the applicable law also contrary to s 476(1)(e). We shall deal with them in turn.
17 The Tribunal noted that the Rahanwein clan, like other clans, has been involved in split and shifting alliances in Somalia over a long period. It found that the Rahanwein clan, under the Somalia Democratic Movement ("SDM") or factions of the SDM, had variously supported the opposing forces or factions of the Hawiye clan led by Aideed of the Habir Gedir subclan, or by Ali Madi of the Abal subclan. The capture and detention of the appellant and his wife whilst they were fleeing Baidoa and when they identified themselves as Rahanwein, the Tribunal concluded, were not an illustration of persecution for a Convention reason because the circumstances would have been the same if they had identified themselves as from the Abgal or Habir Gedir clans "depending on the affiliations of the time". Thus, in its conclusion, the Tribunal found that the appellant's circumstances did not expose him "differentially" to risk for a Convention reason "over and above the ordinary risks of clan warfare".
18 As Abdi indicates, it is necessary to consider the motivation of the civil war giving rise to the "ordinary risks of clan warfare." It may well be that the motivation of particular clan warfare is to persecute members of a clan by reason of that membership, as distinct for example from establishing control over land or resources. The mere fact that a civil conflict is "clan based" does not make its victims the victims of persecution. The Tribunal correctly identified the need to identify the motivation behind the 'clan based warfare' to determine if there has been, or may be, persecution for a Convention reason.
19 It is in applying that test that the Tribunal, in our view, has fallen into error. That error involves the failure to address specifically whether the capture and retention of the appellant and his family were (as he asserted) driven by the intent to repress his particular clan, and also arises because the Tribunal required there to be "systematic persecution" of the members of the Rahanwein clan if the applicant were to succeed in his application.
20 It is unclear whether the Tribunal found that the appellant and his wife were captured and restrained on the farm because they were Rahanwein or for some other reason. The fact that the same events may also have occurred if they were members of some other clan does not really address the question of why the events occurred in this case. If the warring clans at the time meant that the Rahanwein clan was affiliated with certain other clans, so that members of that clan and of the clans of their affiliates were vulnerable to capture and retention and abuse, the question still needs to be addressed as to why those persons were being targeted, that is the purpose of that focus by their opponents and the objectives sought to be achieved by their opponents. The Tribunal, in our judgment, has not taken that step. If the Rahanwein clan was at the relevant time the subject of a persecutory focus given the then affiliations, the fact that clan affiliations may shift, even frequently, does not of itself exclude the motivation for that focus from being a Convention reason. It may be that the shifting alliances to which the Tribunal referred meant that such an incident in 1991 would not give rise to a well-founded fear of persecution by reason of membership of the Rahanwein clan in 1996 (when the application was heard): see Minister for Immigration & Ethnic Affairs v Singh (1997) 72 FCR 288 at 291-294. Shifting alliances may simply mean that persecution directed at one clan at one point in time by reason of membership of a particular clan may not give rise to a well-founded fear of persecution by reason of that membership at another point in time. There is no natural antipathy between the proposition that membership of a clan may be a reason for being targeted during civil war on the one hand, and instability, anarchy and murderous shiftings in a clan based conflict on the other. There may be a small clan, drawn in to a conflict by reason of its desire for self preservation, which is nevertheless being persecuted provided that the reason for the persecution is the membership of that clan and not some other reason. It may be the case that the smaller clans, by reason of their size, may be the victims of power struggles between clans and subclans more frequently, albeit that the source of the harassment or persecution is not consistently the same clan or subclan. The fact that "today's foes can be tomorrow's allies" as the Tribunal observed, does not mean that at a particular point in time, conduct was not directed towards membership of the Rahanwein clan by reason of that membership.
21 In Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo (1997) 191 CLR 559, Brennan CJ, Dawson, Toohey, Gaudron, McHugh and Gummow JJ at 574-575 said: