(ii) The evidence
53 In an attempt to lay a foundation for this argument, counsel for the Minister adduced some statistical and opinion evidence. The statistical material emanated from the Australian Bureau of Statistics ("ABS"). It covered the years 1984 to 1999 and showed, as at August each year, the number of permanent employees in Australia, the number of casual employees and the total number of employees. The statistics indicated each year's "casual density"; that is, the proportion of total employees who were in casual employment. Another column showed the percentage change in casual employment since the preceding year.
54 These statistics reveal that total Australian casual employment grew from 848,300 in 1984 to 1,931,700 in 1999, an increase of 117.7%. This compares with a growth in permanent employment over the same period of 19.1% (4,509,900 to 5,372,500). There were more additional casual employees (1,083,400) than permanents (862,600). Casual density increased from 15.8% to 26.4%. The increase was steady throughout the period. Casual density rose by about 1% per year, with slip-backs only in 1990, 1997 and 1999.
55 The Minister's expert evidence was provided by Professor Mark Wooden, a Professorial Fellow with the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research at the University of Melbourne. Professor Wooden is an economist by training and has worked for some years in the field of labour studies. He has published extensively in that area.
56 Professor Wooden commented on the statistics demonstrating increased casual employment. He said research indicated that casual employment is more heavily concentrated in some particular industry sectors, and among some particular age groups, than in others. There is a high rate of casualisation among employees aged between 15 and 19 years, many of whom are students.
57 Professor Wooden discussed several issues concerning casual employment: casuals' relative levels of pay and skills, the question whether casual jobs are replacing permanent jobs, the causes of casualisation, whether casual employment constitutes a "bridge" or a "trap" for the affected employees, and concern about job insecurity.
58 This discussion is interesting, but none of it bears on the question whether s 170CC(1)(e) of the Workplace Relations Act supports reg 30B of the Regulations. Professor Wooden approached that question only in the last section of his affidavit, headed: "The effect of applying unfair dismissal laws to those casuals excluded by regulation".
59 In para 69 of his affidavit, Professor Wooden stated what he understood (accurately) to be the effect of the current regulations. In para 70 he said:
"In my view, the application of the unfair dismissal provisions of the Federal Workplace Relations Act 1996 to the types of casual employees excluded by regulations would be likely to have an adverse effect of job creation in Australia. In particular, I consider that it would be considerably more difficult for more vulnerable classes of potential employees, such as early school leavers, to find work and to gain the ability to progress to other positions within the workforce."
60 Professor Wooden did not offer any empirical evidence to support his view. He was unable to do so. In cross-examination Professor Wooden said "there certainly hasn't been any direct research on the effects of introducing unfair dismissal laws".
61 Professor Wooden's view was an entirely theoretical construct. He said in his affidavit:
"The question may well be asked as to what would happen if the unfair dismissal laws were to apply to the types of casual employees excluded by the regulations. The answer essentially is that there would be fewer jobs, especially for early school leavers, unemployed people and persons seeking to re-enter the workforce after a period of absence. Firms value the flexibility afforded by casual employment. In particular, they value the ability to vary working hours quickly and sever employment relationships at short notice. Extending the reach of unfair dismissal laws to casual employees would effectively remove one of these flexibilities. That is, employers would no longer have the same flexibility to vary employment numbers in line with variations in demand for their product. Further, employers would have to spend more time, money and effort in deciding who they hire. If they hire someone who is a poor fit with their business, it will now be much more difficult and costly to remove that person."
62 Professor Wooden conceded "many employers do not use this flexibility", "as is reflected in the large proportion of casuals working regular hours in apparently long-term jobs". However, he argued that "just because a firm does not use the flexibility that casual employment potentially affords does not mean it does not value it".
63 Professor Wooden suggested flexibility was especially important to small business enterprises, which had relatively higher casual densities. However, he did not offer any evidence, either statistical or anecdotal, to support his belief about the importance of flexibility to small business. This is particularly disappointing in the light of a table set out in Professor Wooden's affidavit in reply, in which he set out the current job duration, expressed in mean years, of employees aged 15 to 69 years as at April-June 2000. The table showed the position in respect of permanent and casual employees in each of 17 industries. The mean figure for casual employees ranges from 1.6 years (in the construction and the accommodation, cafes and restaurant industries) to 4.9 years (in education).
64 During the course of cross-examination, Mr Rogers suggested to Professor Wooden that, if his assumption about the effect of unfair dismissal laws on casual employment opportunities was correct, it would also apply to full-time permanent employment. Professor Wooden agreed. His evidence went on:
"Do I take it then that you accept that the consequence for employment is not dependent upon the designation of the employee, that is as between full time, part-time and casual, correct? --- Yes
It is dependent upon the fact that the given employee or the given class of employees have access to unfair dismissal laws? --- Correct."
65 Professor Wooden's attention was drawn to the ABS figures on employment growth. It was pointed out to him that, in the period of approximately three years, from March 1994 to December 1996, during which the more comprehensive unfair dismissal protections of the 1993 Act were in place, employment growth was stronger than in the following three years, during which less comprehensive protections applied. Employment growth under the 1993 Act was also stronger than in the three years immediately before the commencement of that Act, when there was no comprehensive unfair dismissal protection. (The ABS statistics show casual employment as being 1,271,800 in August 1990 and 1,435,000 in August 1993 - an increase of 163,200; 1,841,200 in August 1996 - an increase of 406,200 on the August 1993 figure; and 1,931,700 in August 1999 - only 90,500 more than three years earlier).
66 Professor Wooden agreed "the peak in increased employment happens to coincide with the most protective provisions, from the employees' point of view". He also agreed that the pattern in relation to permanent employment was similar. It was suggested this "rather demonstrates that the existence or non-existence of unlawful dismissal legislation has got very little to do with the growth of employment and that it is dictated by economic factors". Professor Wooden agreed "the driving force behind employment is clearly the state of the economy" and mentioned the recovery from recession after 1993.
67 It seems unfortunate that nobody has investigated whether there is any relationship between unfair dismissal legislation and employment growth. There has been much assertion on this topic during recent years, but apparently no effort to ascertain the factual situation.
68 Professor Wooden thought research would be difficult because of the absence of an appropriate control group. However, unfair dismissal provisions were introduced gradually during the 1980's, on an industry-by-industry basis, by awards of industrial commissions. It may have been possible, and may still be possible, for a researcher to have compared, or to compare, the pattern of employment in an industry newly affected by such a provision with the pattern, over the same years, in industries to which no unfair dismissal provisions applied. The results of any comparison might need to be treated with caution; however, any empirical material would be an improvement on mere assertion.
69 Professor Wooden's conclusions about the relationship between unfair dismissal laws and employment generation were disputed by Dr Richard Hall, a Senior Research Fellow with the Australian Centre for Industrial Relations Research and Training at the University of Sydney. Dr Hall noted that Professor Wooden's claim is not based on "directly relevant evidence, statistical or otherwise" but on Professor Wooden's "theorisation of the decision making processes followed by hirers". Dr Hall said:
"Professor Wooden appears to base his view on the assertion that employers faced with an extension of the unfair dismissal laws to a greater number of casuals will become more risk averse with respect to hiring because they will perceive that new substitute hires (for example permanent part-timers) will be more difficult to dismiss in the short term should they prove to be unsuitable ... That argument would be valid if it were not for the widespread practice of using probationary employment terms. Probationary employment arrangements are designed precisely to ensure that employers can exercise the flexibility to quickly and easily dispense with a new employee should they regard them as unsuitable.
If the extension of unfair dismissal laws to include a greater proportion of casuals occurred there is little logical reason to expect that it would automatically lead to fewer jobs. First, many casuals are employed by employers with the intention of retaining them for relatively long periods anyway. Second, employers who chose not to engage casual employees would be likely to meet their labour needs through other strategies that facilitate a high degree of flexibility, for example, though the use of flexible hours, part-time contracts and/or the use of probationary periods. There is no evidence that greater reliance on these strategies would lead to any adverse consequences for job creation at the aggregate level."