The evidence of Dr Jeffrey Szer
71 Dr Jeffrey Szer is a Clinical Haematologist and Medical Oncologist with particular expertise in leukaemia, lymphoma and haemopoietic stem cell transplantation. He is a full-time member of the senior medical staff of the Royal Melbourne Hospital and holds the academic rank of Associate Professor in the Department of Medicine, University of Melbourne.
72 In respect of the opinion expressed by Dr Dodds that the plaintiff's illness was highly likely to result in death within 12 months, Dr Szer reported:
If the assessment made by Dr Dodds was describing the natural (untreated) history of this condition, I do agree with his contention, but as indicated previously, no reasonable physician would fail to offer combination chemotherapy to a fifty-two year old patient with this diagnosis in 2002. As such, I am not of the opinion that the plaintiff was highly likely to be dead within 12 months as at May 2, 2002, nor at 13 June 2002 nor at 8 May 2003. One needs to examine old literature to identify the natural history of stage IV large B cell non Hodgkin lymphoma. In 1981, Dr Fisher from the National Institutes of Health of the USA published a definitive paper on the state of the art then (Fisher RI et al. Factors predicting long term survival in diffuse mixed histiocytic or undifferentiated lymphoma: Blood 1981; 45-51). In that paper with state-of-the-art therapy available at the time (somewhat similar to CHOP), the complete remission rate of stage IV patients was 38% with a median survival of 11 months. Thus more than 50% of patients were dead within 12 months. Results without such therapy were < 5% survival at 12 months. This indicates that there was a high likelihood, that the natural history of the disease Mr Farkas had diagnosed was death before 12 months. In addition, in the Fisher paper, the complete remission rate of patients with a gastrointestinal mass was 7% with a median survival of 6 months, even with therapy further emphasising how poor the prognosis of the plaintiff was at the time of diagnosis. Thus, without therapy, the prognosis would have been dismal for this patient, but with the standard therapy available in May 2002, he would have had an approximately 50% chance of being alive and free of lymphoma at 12 months.
73 Dr Szer's expressed assessment of "an approximately 50% chance of being alive and free of lymphoma at 12 months" was explored in evidence:
Q. Applying statistics to an individual is fraught with problems, isn't it?
A. Yes.
Q. Because statistics are the arithmetical and mathematical description of the experience of the group. Is that correct?
A. Correct.
Q. And to say of an individual that he or she exhibits what is characteristic only of a group can lead to very bad confusion and poor thinking in medicine. Isn't that right?
A. If it was so used, correct.
…
Q. Doctor, in that last sentence you have contrasted two possibilities; one, no therapy and, two, standard therapy. Do you accept that summary?
A. Yes.
Q. And may her Honour take it that you are contrasting them hypothetically as at May 2002?
A. Yes, prior to commencement of therapy.
Q. And applying to Mr Farkas the assessment you made on the basis of the statistical and clinical material referred to in your report; is that correct?
A. Correct.
Q. And without therapy your epithet for his prognosis was dismal; correct?
A. Correct.
A. And then you said that with therapy there was a 50/50 chance he would improve that prospect; is that correct?
A. Correct.
Q. So there was a 50/50 chance of his prognosis remaining dismal; isn't that right?
A. No, because prognosis is something you determine at a point. It is not something you determine on an ongoing basis.
Q. Just to play it out with what mercifully didn't happen to understand your use of this word prognosis and your description of dismal as at May 2002, if we have the argumentative luxury of two Mr Farkases, that is, everything similar except one gets therapy and one doesn't, the one without therapy you would expect to die within 12 months, wouldn't you?
A. Yes.
Q. And it might be fair to say that you would expect that at no stage during the 12 months would his prognosis get better than dismal; would that be right?
A. Yes.
Q. Now we turn to the Mr Farkas who receives what you call the standard therapy available in May 2002. After therapy commences and halfway through, if he appeared to be responding well would you, as an expert, describe his prognosis as having been improved or would it be too early to change your description of it?
A. It would be too early to change the description at that point, but that converse is not true, that is, if the disease were progressing at that point rather than responding to treatment it would be easy to say he would be more likely to be on the less favourable side of that prognosis.
Q. So that early favourable response may not justify improving prognosis but persistence of disease progression into therapy would make his prognosis worse; is that correct?
A. That's correct.
Q. And as time went on during this first year following diagnosis, it would be correct to say, wouldn't it, that the prognosis for the treated Mr Farkas not responding well or suffering complications would continue to spiral downwards; is that right?
A. If that were the only treatment able to be offered, yes.
Q. Whereas, on the other hand, if things were on the up and up, treatment appeared, as it were, touch wood, to be working after, say, six-months, it may still be too early to improve your prognosis for 12 months survival; is that correct?
A. Yes.
Q. That's because quite a lot can happen in six months?
A. That's right.
Q. So that for the treated Mr Farkas. As at May 2002 when you first set out to describe his prognosis, assuming as a clinician you were concerned to do so with the semantic precision you are being asked to do now, doctor, you would simply not be in a position to predict whether he was going to be one of those treated patients whose prognosis may remain 50/50 or whether he would be one of those treated patients whose prognosis went into a sad decline; isn't that right?
A. That's correct.
Conclusion on Construction of the Policy
74 The plaintiff and the second and third defendants submitted that the Policy requires a prognosis that the result would be death within 12 months based on the presentation of the disease at the time of diagnosis, not taking into account the treatment that was available. It was submitted that the construction for which Tower contends requires the insertion of the words "with treatment" and that such a construction is not reasonable when one reads the whole of the Policy.
75 It was submitted that the construction for which Tower contends leads to uncertainty. Those uncertainties include whether all insureds will accept treatment with emphasis placed upon patient autonomy There is the uncertainty of the response to treatment particularly, for instance, in the "rarer" types of cancer, a type with which the plaintiff was diagnosed. There is also the uncertainty of the timing of treatment that may be administered. There is the further uncertainty of the different types of treatment that may be prescribed by different practitioners. What if, for a variety of reasons, the patient is unable to have access to the obviously world class treatment to which the plaintiff had access? All of these uncertainties favour the construction that it is the presentation of the disease per se at the time of diagnosis rather than its presentation with treatment that is relevant for prognosis. If there is an ambiguity in the definition as to whether it is an illness or condition that is treated or an illness or condition that is not treated, the construction given to the Policy should favour the plaintiff: Australian Casualty Co Ltd v Federico (1986) 160 CLR 513 at 520-521 per Gibbs CJ; Johnson v American Home Assurance Company (1998) 192 CLR 266 at 274-275 per Kirby J; McCann v Switzerland Insurance Australia Ltd (2000) 203 CLR 579 at 602 per Kirby J. That means that on the basis that there is an ambiguity, the prognosis is to be made at the time of diagnosis on the presentation of the disease per se rather than the presentation of the disease with treatment.
76 The words of the definition, that it is "an illness or condition which is likely to result in death within 12 months", also support this construction. It may seem odd, particularly to medical practitioners, that the assessment of the high likelihood of death within 12 months does not take into account the available treatment. However that is what the words say, without the introduction or implication of the words "with treatment". I am satisfied that the appropriately beneficial construction of the Policy is that the prognosis, or assessment, is to be made of the presentation of the disease per se without treatment.
77 There is no doubt that on the construction of the Policy requiring the prognosis without consideration of treatment, the plaintiff's prognosis was "dismal" and it was highly likely that his condition or illness would result in death within 12 months. I am satisfied that on this construction the plaintiff was diagnosed with a terminal illness within the meaning of that term within the Policy. Tower is therefore liable to pay to the plaintiff the Death Cover of $650,000 under the Critical Illness Benefit Conditions and the Death Benefit of $100,000 under the Tower Term Benefit Conditions.
78 Even on the construction of the Policy that there was to be a prognosis considering the available treatment, the evidence of the plaintiff's medical witnesses establishes that at the time of diagnosis, with the special combination of the factors present with this plaintiff's disease, especially the involvement of the lungs, it was highly likely that the plaintiff's illness would result in death within 12 months. The luxury of retrospectivity must be resisted in this case because the relevant time for prognosis is May 2002. Tower fell into the retrospectivity trap when it declined the plaintiff's claim on the basis that the plaintiff was in remission in 2003. That was not the relevant test. The correspondence in 2003 was part of the claim made in 2002 and the relevant test was whether the assessment that the plaintiff was diagnosed with a terminal illness was confirmed, not whether the plaintiff just happened to be in remission at the time of the further correspondence.
79 Even the evidence of Tower's medical witness, Dr Szer, does not detract from the conclusion that even with treatment the plaintiff's death was highly likely within 12 months of diagnosis. His prognosis without treatment was "dismal". The highest Dr Szer could put it with treatment was that the plaintiff would have had "an approximately 50% chance of being alive and free of lymphoma at 12 months". Of course the test was not whether he was alive and free of lymphoma. Putting that to one side, Dr Szer's "approximately 50% chance" is just an approximation. The cross-examination of Dr Szer utilising the example of having two identical patients, one with treatment and one without treatment, was rather illuminating. He frankly conceded that early favourable response to treatment may not justify improving prognosis but persistence of disease progression would make prognosis worse. It must be remembered also that Dr Szer did not see the plaintiff at the relevant time - at diagnosis - whereas Dr Dodds and Professor Young did.