Ground 1 - the appellant's claimed political opinion
18 It is convenient to consider ground 1 first, and then grounds 2 and 3 together.
19 Ground 1 is:
The IAA erred by failing to consider an essential integer of his claim, being that he claimed to fear harm on the basis that he held a political opinion and that his political opinion would manifest in his participation in protests, as a result of which he faced a real and not remote chance of serious harm in Islamabad.
Particulars
1. The appellant raised a claim to fear harm on the basis of holding, and manifesting, a political opinion: see statement of protection claims: [34]-[36]; [39]-[42]. This was a distinct and separate integer of the appellant's claim.
2. Despite this, the IAA found that the appellant 'is not a high profile Shia and has expressed no political opinions aside from his concerns about the security situation in Parachinar': [31].
3. To the extent that this finding concerned the appellant's expression of political opinions, it was wrong. The appellant had, in fact, expressed the political opinion described at paragraphs [34]-[36] and [39]-[42] of this statement of protection claims.
4. By failing to identify, and address, this integer of the appellant's claim, the IAA constructively failed to exercise its jurisdiction.
20 The particulars identify the asserted political opinion by reference to the appellant's Statement of Protection Claims, but do not say what the opinion was. In the appellant's written submissions to this Court, the opinion is said to have been that 'Shia Muslims are not safe in Pakistan because the central government is corrupt and colludes with the Taliban, and the police will not provide protection' (appellant's submissions (AS) para 20(a)).
21 According to the appellant, he also claimed before the delegate that he had in the past and would in the future manifest that political opinion by participating in public protests. He also submits that he had further claimed that a consequence of his holding and manifesting that political opinion was that he would not be protected by the government, because it was corrupt and colluded with the Taliban. He says further that he claimed that he would not be protected by the police.
22 The appellant submits that all of this was a 'distinct integer' of his claim (AS para 22), which was not addressed by the Authority. To the contrary, the Authority found that he had expressed no specific political opinions aside from his concerns about the security situation in Parachinar. That, he submits, was wrong, as he had expressed the political opinion described above.
23 The sole factual basis of the submissions that the appellant held a political opinion, had expressed that opinion and would manifest it in future is the passages from his Statement of Protection Claims set out at [6] and [7] above. I accept that, by stating that the government is corrupt and associated with the Taliban, that document indicates that the appellant holds a political opinion. But, crucially, I do not accept that the document says that he ever expressed that opinion in Pakistan, or that he would ever express or otherwise manifest it if he returned (or, for completeness, that he had ever expressed it while in Australia other than in his application for protection - no sur place claim of that kind is raised).
24 The only opinion said to have been manifested by the appellant in Pakistan was the opinion he expressed by taking part in the protest, 'that Shia Muslims are not safe in Pakistan' (Statement of Protection Claims para 34). Save to that extent, I do not accept that the appellant claimed before the delegate that he feared harm because he held, expressed or manifested a political opinion, or that he would manifest any political opinion on return to Pakistan.
25 In his Statement of Protection Claims, the appellant made no claim to have ever expressed, on any occasion, the opinion that the Pakistani government was corrupt (other than on the occasion of his protection visa application to the Australian government). He made no claim that he would express or manifest that opinion on return to Pakistan. The point of putting the opinion in his Statement of Protection Claims was evidently to persuade the Minister that he would receive no protection from the harm he claimed to fear because of his religion.
26 In her oral submissions, counsel for the appellant sought to draw something out of the Statement of Protection Claims which was not highlighted in her written submissions. She submitted that where, at paragraph 34 of the statement, the appellant says, 'We were protesting to say that Shia Muslims are not safe in Pakistan', he was referring not only to protesting about attacks by the Taliban or others, but also to protesting the lack of government protection from those attacks because of corruption.
27 I do not accept that submission. The first sentence of paragraph 34 says, 'Protests by people in Parachinar against the Taliban are not effective because the central government is corrupt.' That sentence provides the immediate context for the subject matter of the protest in which the appellant took part: it was a protest against the Taliban, not against the government.
28 If I am wrong about that, the characterisation of the appellant's protection claims now put by his counsel does not emerge with sufficient clarity from the material he put to mean that the Authority fell into jurisdictional error by not addressing it. It was not expressly articulated and it did not arise squarely on the materials before the Authority: cf. NABE v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (No 2) [2004] FCAFC 263; (2004) 144 FCR 1 at [58], [60] (Black CJ, French and Selway JJ).
29 And if I am wrong about that, to the extent that the appellant claimed to fear harm on return to Pakistan because he had expressed any political opinion at the protest, the Authority did deal with that. It found that his participation in the protest did not give him any profile as a political activist in Pakistan, as discussed above at [12]. The claim was therefore subsumed in a wider finding: see e.g. Applicant WAEE v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs [2003] FCAFC 184; (2003) 236 FCR 593 at [47].
30 The changes in the appellant's case at the hearing were such that the Minister was permitted to file supplementary written submissions. Understandably, those submissions posited (tentatively) yet another way that counsel for the appellant may have described her client's claim, namely that he feared harm at the hands of the government itself. It is true that there is one sentence in the Statement of Protection Claims which says that 'Sometimes the police will assist the Taliban in organising attacks on Shia Muslims' (para 35, at [6] above). However a passing reference of that kind is insufficient to constitute an 'integer' of the appellant's claim, nor in any event is it so prominent in the materials that the Authority would fall into jurisdictional error by failing to mention it. The fear the appellant expressed was a fear of the Taliban and, possibly, other Sunni militant groups, who were likely to attack him because he is a Shia Muslim. His repeated mentions of the government in connection with his fears of suffering harm are references to the government's unwillingness to protect him from harm at the hands of militant groups. The appellant evidently had assistance in the preparation of his protection visa application, and he was represented before the Authority. If he had feared harm at the hands of the government, he could have been expected to say so clearly, somewhere.
31 Counsel for the appellant also submitted that the relevant 'integer' of the claim could be understood as being that his fear of harm was 'heightened, amplified or magnified' by the asserted corruption of the Pakistani government and/or its association with the Taliban. But a claim to that effect is simply not present in the materials before the Authority. In the appellant's supplementary written submissions, it was asserted that the claim was 'woven through his statement of claims' (para 8), referring to the excerpts from that document that are set out above at [6]. Read fairly, however, and with the lone exception of the sentence about the police assisting the Taliban, the claims go no further than an absence of government protection. With or without that sentence, the implication that the appellant's counsel now seeks to draw out does not amount to a separate 'integer' of his claims. The submission adds nothing to the analysis of ground 1 conducted above.
32 Counsel for the appellant submitted orally, yet further, that the references to government corruption in the Statement of Protection Claims could be understood, alternatively, as 'an essential component' of the claim that he feared harm because he was a Shia Muslim. I accept that they were, in the sense that the appellant's claims to fear harm at the hands of the Taliban and other non-government actors would not have been well founded if the government were to offer a satisfactory level of protection against that harm.
33 But this too adds nothing to the analysis in the present case. The Authority accepted that the appellant faced a real risk of serious and significant harm in Parachinar. That is what the appellant was claiming. It follows that the Authority did not hold the opinion that the government provided an adequate level of protection to Shia Muslims in Parachinar. The Authority then went on to reject the protection claims on the basis that the appellant could relocate to Islamabad. Since the Authority made the unchallenged finding that the appellant would not be at risk of harm there, any relevance of the asserted government corruption falls away.
34 Counsel for the appellant submitted, in effect, that it did not fall away, because it would have been open to the Authority to reason that, while there was a low level of violence in the major cities, the consequences of that violence, when it occurred, were serious, so that if the central government were to fail to protect Shia Muslims as victims of that violence, the appellant would face a risk of serious harm.
35 This seems to be put as a point about materiality and, while I have not found there to be any error capable of being either material or not, it is appropriate to consider the point through that prism. In my respectful view, it fails to pay attention to the Authority's actual path of reasoning, in at least two respects. First, the Authority's finding was that there was a low level of sectarian violence in Islamabad. Second, it noted with evident acceptance country information that there was a strong security presence in the city which provided a strong deterrent to militant groups, so that large scale attacks were rare (see [13] above). The appellant does not impugn that finding. Thus, the Authority's overall conclusion was that matters including the strong security presence and low number of sectarian incidents meant that the appellant would face only a remote chance of being harmed in Islamabad (see [16] above).
36 Subject to the issues about to be considered under grounds 2 and 3, it necessarily followed that the appellant did not meet either the refugee criterion in s 36(2)(a) of the Migration Act or the complementary protection criterion in s 36(2)(aa). In the face of those conclusions, the path of reasoning posited by counsel for the appellant does not meet the standard of 'reasonable conjecture' as described by Kiefel CJ, Gageler, Keane and Gleeson JJ in MZAPC v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2021] HCA 17; (2021) 273 CLR 506 at [38].
37 Ground 1 is not upheld.