Applicant's submissions
21 The applicant referred to the observation made by Sackville J (North J agreeing) in Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs v Rajalingam [1999] FCA 719; (1999) 93 FCR 220 (Rajalingam) at [45]:
[T]here may be cases where the available evidence does not allow findings as to past events to be made with confidence. For example, the decision-maker may consider that the best guide as to the likely fate of "returning illegal departees" is the actual fate of a group of similar departees who have already been returned to their country of nationality. The available information as to the fate of the latter group may be limited, and the decision-maker might not be able to conclude that any had received punishment by reason of their actual or imputed political opinions. But if the decision-maker considers that there is uncertainty about the fate of the first group, the chance that they had indeed been severely punished as political dissenters would support the claim of the current group of applicants to have a well-founded fear of persecution.
22 This passage formed part of a detailed analysis of the principles concerning fact finding in relation to whether an applicant has a well-founded fear of persecution.
23 The applicant also referred to the following passage from Kirby J's reasons in Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Wu Shan Liang [1996] HCA 6; (1996) 185 CLR 259 (Wu Shan Liang) at 293 (citations omitted):
[T]he decision-maker must not, by a process of factual findings on particular elements of the material which is provided, foreclose reasonable speculation upon the chances of persecution emerging from a consideration of the whole of the material. Evaluation of chance, as required by Chan cannot be reduced to scientific precision. That is why it is necessary, notwithstanding particular findings, for the decision-maker in the end to return to the question: "What if I am wrong"? Otherwise, by eliminating facts on the way to the final conclusion, based upon what seems "likely" or "entitled to greater weight", the decision-maker may be left with nothing upon which to conduct the speculation necessary to the evaluation of the facts taken as a whole, in so far as they are said to give rise to a "real chance" of persecution.
24 Sackville J's analysis in Rajalingam considered this passage at [46] and following.
25 The applicant also noted the consideration of the reasons of Kirby J in Wu Shan Liang at 293 in Thanh Phat Ma v Billings J (Constituting the Refugee Review Tribunal) (1996) 71 FCR 431 at 436 (referred to by Sackville J in Rajalingam at [48]), as follows:
All I think Kirby J was concerned to explain was that, unless the decision maker can dismiss as unfounded factual assertions made by the applicant, the decision maker should be alert to the importance of considering whether the accumulation of circumstances, each of which possesses some probative cogency, is enough to show, as a matter of speculation, a real chance of persecution, even though no one circumstance, considered by itself, is sufficient to raise that prospect.
26 The applicant also referred to the following statement of the plurality in Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo [1997] HCA 22; (1997) 191 CLR 559 at 576:
It is true that, in determining whether there is a real chance that an event will occur or will occur for a particular reason, the degree of probability that similar events have or have not occurred or have or have not occurred for particular reasons in the past is relevant in determining the chance that the event or the reason will occur in the future. lf, for example, a Tribunal finds that it is only slightly more probable than not that an applicant has not been punished for a convention reason, it must take into account the chance that the applicant was so punished when determining that there is a well-founded fear of future persecution.
In the present case, however, the Tribunal appears to have had no real doubts that its findings both as to the past and the future were correct. That is, the Tribunal appears to have taken the view that the probability of error in its findings was insignificant. Once the Tribunal reached that conclusion, a finding that nevertheless Mr Guo had a well-founded fear of persecution for a Convention reason would have been irrational. Given its apparent confidence in its conclusions, the Tribunal was not then bound to consider whether its findings might be wrong.
27 This passage was considered by Sackville J in Rajalingam at [55] and [56].
28 In Rajalingam, at [63], Sackville J noted:
The reasonable speculation in which the decision-maker must engage may require him or her to take account of the chance that past events might have occurred, even though the decision-maker thinks that they probably did not. In the language of s 476(1)(e) of the Migration Act, a failure to do so may constitute "an error involving an incorrect interpretation of the applicable law or an incorrect application of the law to the facts as found".
29 At [67], Sackville J concluded:
In general, however, the question of whether the [Tribunal] should have considered the possibility that its findings of fact might not have been correct is to be determined by reference to the [Tribunal's] own reasons. If a fair reading of the reasons as a whole shows that the [Tribunal] itself had "no real doubt" (to use the language in Guo) claimed events had not occurred, there is no warrant for holding that it should have considered the possibility that its findings were wrong. Reasonable speculation as to whether the applicant had a well-founded fear of persecution does not require a possibility inconsistent with the [Tribunal's] own findings to be pursued. A "fair reading" of the reasons incorporates the principle that the [Tribunal's] reasons should receive a "beneficial construction" and should not be "construed minutely and finely with an eye keenly attuned to the perception of error": Wu Shan Liang, at 271-272, quoting Collector of Customs v Pozzolanic Enterprises Pty Ltd (1993) 43 FCR 280 (FC), at 287. Only if a fair reading of the reasons allows the conclusion that the [Tribunal] had a real doubt that its findings on material questions of fact were correct, might error be revealed by the [Tribunal's] failure to take account of the possibility that the alleged events might have occurred (or the possibility that an event said not to have occurred did not in fact occur). If the fair reading allows of such a conclusion, the failure to consider the possibilities might demonstrate that the [Tribunal] had not undertaken the required speculation about the chances of future persecution.
30 The applicant submitted that the Tribunal's reasons reveal that it was unable to decide with any certainty his claims in respect of his political involvement in Malaysia including, in particular that:
(1) he was detained and then let go after a Hindraf demonstration;
(2) he was assaulted in 2007 at a Hindraf rally;
(3) in early 2016 he joined protests to condemn corrupt practices of the Prime Minister and he was critical about the government and its current corrupt practices, and that two police repeatedly threatened him as he was critical of the ruling party because of its corrupt practices including the recent funds transferred to the personal bank account of the Prime Minister;
(4) the ruling party threatened to file false cases against him with an intention to silence him from expressing his views against the government; and
(5) the police would not protect him and will act according to the ruling political parties.
31 The applicant submitted that:
[T]he Tribunal did not, nor could not, take the view that its findings at [41] were made with confidence or that the probability of error was insignificant, yet the findings appeared to foreclose on the possibility that there may be a real chance the Applicant has a well founded fear of persecution.
32 Further, the applicant submitted that the first sentence of [40] of its decision record was something less than an explicit rejection of the applicant's claim concerning the conduct of two police officers after his attendance at a 2016 rally.