Relevant background
5 The applicant is a Shia Muslim and a citizen of Pakistan. He arrived in Australia on 25 December 2014 on a student (subclass 573) visa that was valid until 24 August 2016. He claims to have left Pakistan because, amongst other reasons:
(1) his ex-wife's brothers and uncles (who purportedly were involved in political and religious parties) have threatened to kill him because of his having divorced his wife;
(2) he is at risk of being the target of an honour killing (at the direction of his ex-wife's family);
(3) in September 2014, he received threatening calls that he would be killed;
(4) when the applicant reported to police the threatening phone calls that he received, they were unhelpful;
(5) he is a Shia Muslim; and
(6) he feared for his life.
6 On 8 July 2015, he applied to the Minister for a protection visa. On 30 March 2016, the Minister, by his delegate, refused that application (hereafter, the "Delegate's Decision"). That refusal was the subject of an application dated 5 April 2016 for review by the AAT.
7 In January 2019, the applicant provided documents to the AAT, which included an "[a]mended [s]tatement" and a covering submission from his advisor. The Tribunal described those contentions in its decision in the following terms:
24. [The applicant] claimed in his statement that he discovered that his wife was having a relationship outside their marriage in March 2012. He claimed that this was the reason his marriage disintegrated. He said a court in Karachi handed down a divorce on 5 September 2013. He claimed his wife's uncle openly stated in the court that day his intention to seek revenge for the shame caused by the divorce. He claimed his ex-wife's family invited the fanatical group Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP) to avenge the divorce on their behalf. He described SSP as being aligned with the (Sunni) Taliban extremist movement in Pakistan, and as being responsible for targeting, killing and torturing Shi'a Muslims in Pakistan. He said that if he returns to Pakistan SSP will take advantage of his Shi'a religious affiliation and kill him. These claims about the SSP did not appear in [the applicant]'s original protection visa application.
25. In an apparent escalation from original claims to DHA about merely having received threatening telephone calls, [the applicant] claimed in this "Amended statement" that SSP members even confronted him "in the street" and identified themselves as SSP members. He then repeated his previous claims about having received "anonymous" threatening telephone calls. He said that he tried to stay safe in his house and travel to work by different routes day-to-day but added that this "did not work" because SSP members used to follow him as soon as he left his front door. He claimed he once walked to the police followed by two people on a motorcycle and reported "the incident", the police then having helped him get back home. He said he could not provide all the details to the police, who thus were unable to take any action.
26. [The applicant] claimed he was once going to his local mosque when he noticed a group of possible SSP members following him, to harm or even kill him. He said he ran into the mosque and was able to return safely home with help from some fellow worshippers.
27. [The applicant] claimed he decided he had to leave Pakistan. He claimed he engaged an agent to help him get a student visa for Australia. He said he lodged his student visa application on 14 October 2014, the same month, I note, when he ceased working. He claimed the visa was issued on 8 December 2014. As noted, [the applicant] arrived here on 25 December 2014.
8 On 7 March 2019, the AAT invited the applicant to attend a hearing, which was conducted on 3 April 2019. On 17 April 2019, the AAT affirmed the Delegate's Decision.
9 In doing so, the AAT concluded that the applicant's claims that he might somehow or to some degree be affected by sectarian conflict in Pakistan were speculative. The AAT accepted that whilst the Sipah-e-Sahaba (hereafter, the "SSP") still operated in Pakistan, it was not satisfied on the evidence that the applicant faced a real chance of being persecuted by the SSP in the reasonably foreseeable future by reason of his Shia religion and/or his membership of a particular social group. Further, it concluded that his claims about his ex-wife's family being both illiterate and politically connected were incongruous, and that he gave inconsistent evidence as to who, as between he and his ex-wife, had ended their marriage.
10 The AAT did not consider the applicant to be a truthful witness. It made the following relevant observations:
40. At the hearing, [the applicant] gave generally inconsistent evidence about when his in-laws brought SSP into the matter, or let them take over. He also gave inconsistent and implausible evidence about how he was able to avoid being killed by SSP, given its notorious record for killing its targets. In addition, when I questioned why the SSP would enter into an arrangement with a Shi'a family to do its bidding in getting rid of a Shi'a in-law, [the applicant] speculated that his uncle, who shouted out in the court that he would engage the SSP to kill him, might simply have dealt with the SSP through some kind of intermediary, the SSP therefore not knowing that they were being paid by a Shi'a to kill a Shi'a. This latter suggestion struck me as being convoluted and far-fetched.
41. I put to [the applicant] that it seemed implausible that such a successfully murderous group had not been able to kill him after what he described as six to seven months of close surveillance. In reply, [the applicant] said that one day after he came to Australia, his mother arrived home to find "all the doors open" but nothing stolen from the house. He implied that SSP did this, but the claim did not help address my concern as to why SSP had been unable to carry out its alleged mandate against him.
…
44. I accept that [the applicant] is a divorced Shi'a Muslim from Gulchan Iqbal district in Karachi who worked in that city up till around the time he obtained an Australia student visa. I accept that he is active at his local mosque. His evidence indicates that he is able to access that mosque whenever he wishes. I give some weight to his description of his neighbourhood as one that is mixed and relatively peaceful. I give some weight to his description of close family members going about their day-to-day lives in Karachi. I also give weight to the independent evidence about a substantial decrease in sectarian violence in Karachi and other parts of Pakistan in recent years. It is bald speculation that [the applicant] might somehow or to some degree be affected by sectarian conflict in Pakistan at some time in the future. Although SSP still operates in Pakistan, I am not satisfied on the evidence before me that [the applicant] faces a real chance of being persecuted in that country in the reasonably foreseeable future separately or cumulatively for the reason of his Shi'a "religion" or "membership of a particular social group".
45. I find that [the applicant]'s claims about his ex-wife's family being both illiterate and politically connected are somewhat incongruous. I have not given this incongruity weight on its own; however, I give it some cumulative weight, considering other problems in the evidence in this case. I find that [the applicant] has given inconsistent evidence as to who left whom in his marriage. I consider this inconsistency to be significant enough to leave me unsatisfied his version of events as to why his ex-wife's family is so homicidally inclined towards him. I find it implausible, in the claimed circumstances, that [the applicant] was not seriously harmed some time between separation and divorce, or in the year after his divorce. When I tried to encourage [the applicant] to speak to this issue, he simply provided inconsistent accounts as to when the SSP was brought or allowed in to follow him and kill him.
46. Ultimately, [the applicant]'s evidence about SSP entering into an arrangement with a Shi'a family to do its bidding in getting rid of a Shi'a in-law ultimately struck me as being so farfetched as to be fanciful. I do not accept his claims about the police having told him to avoid mentioning the SSP by name in the letter he purportedly submitted to them. I find on the evidence that the whole existence of the SSP in [the applicant]'s claims about the fallout from his separation and divorce are a recent invention. Overall, I do not accept that [the applicant] is a witness of truth. In support of his claims before the Tribunal, he has even said he falsified facts in his "Divorce Deed". Whether he did that or not, I find that he is such an unreliable witness that I can give no weight at all to the purported letter to the police. I also give no weight to the anecdote about his mother having come back home one day to an open but intact house.
11 The AAT was not satisfied that there were substantial grounds for believing that, if returned to Pakistan, there was a real risk that the applicant would be subjected to relevant persecution or harm. That being so, the AAT concluded that the applicant did not satisfy either of the two criteria for which ss 36(2)(a) and 36(2)(aa) of the Act provide. For that reason, it affirmed the Delegate's Decision.