68 No-one has suggested that the installation of 20 gaming machines in the Family Hotel at Drouin will be unsuccessful. Rather there is a consensus that the hotel is likely to achieve its projection and that each of the gaming machines is likely to earn $1,400 per week. This represents a total machine income of $1,456,000 per annum.
69 Because the approval will make the Family Hotel more profitable, this increases the chances that the hotel facilities will be upgraded in the future. This is also made more likely because upgraded facilities will be necessary for the venue to compete with existing gaming venues in Warragul. Evidence was given in this case of an actual intention on the part of the applicant to upgrade the hotel if the application was successful. I accept that evidence, as it is inherently likely.
70 I find that it is likely that a substantial proportion of the additional gaming expenditure will be derived from persons who live or work in Drouin; with a lesser proportion deriving from persons who live or work in Warragul. Some of the expenditure will be derived from persons who live or work in the balance of the shire, with a smaller proportion again deriving from persons who live or work outside the shire. This reflects the diminishing attraction of a gaming machine venue with distance.[30] It also reflects the fact that gaming machine venues exist in many rural towns, so there is generally no need for patrons to travel long distances to engage in gaming. Surveys have shown that a substantial proportion of gaming patrons live or work within 5 kilometres of a gaming venue.[31] A survey of Family Hotel patronage confirms a similar pattern exists at the moment, with 74% of bistro patrons living in Drouin.
71 I also find that a substantial proportion of the expenditure which will occur using the 20 proposed machines at Drouin will be transferred from existing machines in Warragul. Some expenditure may also be transferred from machines outside of the shire, for example those in Pakenham or Moe. It is difficult to precisely ascertain the proportion of expenditure at Drouin which will be "new" expenditure, as opposed to existing gaming expenditure by members of the community of the shire which will be transferred to the Drouin venue. However I would regard the applicant's estimate to be reasonable: namely that 40% of the expenditure will be "new" and 60% will be transferred by existing members of the community of the shire to the new venue. In support of this conclusion I rely upon evidence which was placed before the tribunal as to the impact of new venues on existing venues. I also take account of the fact that Drouin (and, for that matter, Warragul) are located towards the centre of the shire and, as twin towns, are relatively self contained.
72 It follows from the foregoing that I also find that the approval of the venue with 20 gaming machines will increase the total gaming expenditure by residents of the shire by about $600,000.[32]
73 It is desirable to now refer to relevant statistics about the shire, and gaming within the shire, in order to set this increase in gaming expenditure in context. According to Department of Sustainability and Environment estimates, the 2004 population of the shire was 37,639. The adult population of the shire in this year was 27,610. At present there are three gaming venues within the shire, which house a total of 155 gaming machines. Hence the number of gaming machines per 1,000 adults in the shire is 5.62. This is to be compared with the number of gaming machines per 1,000 adults in country Victoria generally, which is 7.15. The approval of the proposed venue in Drouin, with 20 machines, will increase the number of gaming machines per 1,000 adults in the shire to 6.34. Significantly, this ratio will still be substantially below the ratio for country Victoria generally.
74 In the year 2003/04 gaming machine expenditure in the shire was $9,275,577. Since this time 15 additional machines have been approved in Warragul. If those machines had been in operation in 2003/04, and after allowing for transferred expenditure, it is likely that the total spending would be about $9,700,000. If the 20 additional Drouin machines had also been in operation in 2003/04, and after allowing for transferred expenditure, I find that the total spending would be about $10,300,000 per annum. Thus, if the proposed venue is approved, the average gaming machine expenditure per adult will be $373 (up from $351 if the venue is not approved), which is still substantially less than the Victorian country average of $474 and very much less than the State average of $600.
75 The shire - and in particular Drouin - is not disadvantaged. On most statistical scores, the shire registers as average. For example, using the Australian Bureau of Statistics "SEIFA Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage"[33], the shire scores 1009.66, compared with an average for Victoria of 1014.59 and an average for country municipalities of 998.86. It is very close to the average for the State in terms of socio-economic character. The unemployment rate for Baw Baw is 4.3%, compared with a rate for the State of 5.7% and a rate for country Victoria of 7.0%. Indeed, the unemployment rate for Baw Baw West (which includes Drouin and Warragul) is only 3.9%. This indicates a very healthy local economy.
76 Thus, if the proposed venue is approved it will result in a penetration of gaming machines per adult that is lower than for the rest of Victoria; and a gaming expenditure per adult which is less than the rest of Victoria. And this will occur in a municipality which is not comparatively disadvantaged.
77 It is desirable to briefly discuss the impact of approving the proposed Drouin venue, with 20 machines, on the flow of monies. As I have explained, if the Drouin venue is approved, the residents of the shire will spend approximately $600,000 more on gaming than they do at present. One-third of this amount ($200,000) will be paid to the State Government as additional tax. A further 8.33% ($50,000) will be paid to the State Government's Community Support Fund. This fund is primarily used to fund public facilities and services. A further 33% ($200,000) will be paid to the operator of the gaming machines, which in turn will be spent on wages, supplies, taxation and dividends. The balance (25% or $150,000) represents the net earnings of the venue operators at both the Drouin venue and the venues from which gaming expenditure will be transferred. As the gross revenue received by the Drouin venue will be 25% of, say, $1,456,000 ($364,000), there will be other venues that will see a reduction in gross revenue as a result of the competition from the Drouin venue. But the fact that some venue operators will be losers is of no real moment: there is no evidence that any of these existing venues will be put out of business if the Drouin venue is approved.[34]