Did the Tribunal misconstrue the test for a "well-founded fear of persecution"?
30 The appellant's argument that the Tribunal misconstrued the test for a well-founded fear of persecution is based on a misreading, or at least an unfair or incorrect interpretation, of the Tribunal's reasons. The Tribunal did not, as the appellant contended, find that there was a low risk that the appellant would be persecuted if returned to Sri Lanka by reason of either his Tamil ethnicity or any perceived association with the Tamil Tigers. Nor did the Tribunal find that a low risk of persecution would not amount to a real chance of persecution, or could not give rise to a well-founded fear of persecution.
31 It may readily be accepted that a person may have a well-founded fear of persecution even though the possibility of the persecution is low, in the sense of being well-below 50 per cent. There must, however, be a "real chance" of persecution, which generally means that the possibility of persecution must be one that is not remote, insubstantial or far-fetched. A summary of the relevant law to this effect was included in an annexure to the Tribunal's reasons. These propositions flow from the judgments of Mason CJ and McHugh J in Chan. It should be noted, however, that in Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo (1997) 191 CLR 559 at 572 (per Brennan CJ, Dawson, Toohey, Gaudron, McHugh and Gummow JJ) the High Court cautioned against using the "real chance" test as a substitute for the Convention term "well-founded fear of persecution".
32 A fair reading of the Tribunal's reasons indicates that the Tribunal was not satisfied that there was a real chance that the appellant would be persecuted for any of the reasons that he had advanced. There is no indication that in so concluding the Tribunal used the expression "real chance" as meaning anything other than a possibility that was not remote, insubstantial or far-fetched.
33 The appellant's argument in support of ground 1 is based on the Tribunal's apparent acceptance of a statement from a report which, on one reading, appeared to acknowledge that there was a low risk that Tamil civilians who were not members of the Tamil Tigers, including those who may have provided a lower level of support to the Tamil Tigers, might be detained or prosecuted. It is difficult to fully appreciate the full import of that statement because the report was not included in the appeal book and does not appear to have been before the primary judge. That is no doubt because there was no issue about this report or any conclusions that could be drawn from it in the court below.
34 In any event, the appellant submitted that it followed from the Tribunal's acceptance of the country information that the Tribunal must have found that there was a low risk that the appellant, who was a Tamil, would be detained or prosecuted and therefore persecuted. The appellant argued that a low risk is sufficient to constitute a real chance, the Tribunal should have found that the appellant had a well-founded fear of persecution. In the appellant's submission, the only explanation for the Tribunal's finding to the contrary must be that the Tribunal did not consider that a low risk was sufficient to constitute a real chance and that the Tribunal must therefore have misconstrued either the real chance test, or the expression well-founded fear of persecution.
35 There are a number of difficulties with this argument. In particular, the argument relies on reading the Tribunal's reference to the relevant statement from the country report in isolation and out of context. To the extent that the report referred to Tamil civilians who provided low level support to the Tamil Tigers, there was no suggestion that the appellant provided low level support to the Tamil Tigers. The Tribunal also rejected the appellant's contention that the Sri Lankan authorities would suspect him of having been connected with the Tamil Tigers. There is nothing to indicate that the Tribunal accepted that there was any probability, let alone a low probability, that the appellant would be detained or prosecuted on the basis that he had provided low level support to the Tamil Tigers.
36 To the extent that the relevant statement from the report referred to Tamil civilians generally, the Tribunal dealt with the appellant's claimed fear of persecution on the basis of his Tamil ethnicity in a separate part of its reasons. At paragraphs 80 to 83 of its reasons, the Tribunal referred to other country information that indicated that "the trend of monitoring and harassment of Tamils in day-to-day life had generally eased since the end of the conflict". The Tribunal accepted that the country information did indicate that "problems remain" for persons suspected of association with the Tamil Tigers, but repeated its finding that it was not satisfied that the appellant had, or would be suspected of having, connections with the Tamil Tigers. Likewise, at paragraph 90 of its reasons, the Tribunal referred to country information that indicated that Tamil ethnicity was not a "risk factor". The country information did not indicate that Tamil asylum seekers face a real chance of serious harm on the basis of their ethnicity alone.
37 Those parts of the Tribunal's reasons suggest that the Tribunal considered that the country information that was before it indicated that Tamil ethnicity alone was not a basis for finding that a person had a well-founded fear of persecution if returned to Sri Lanka. While the Tribunal did not expressly reconcile that finding with its acceptance of the information that suggested that there may have been a low risk of Tamils being detained or prosecuted, a fair reading of the reasons as a whole indicates that on the whole of the material before it, the Tribunal was not satisfied that a person of Tamil ethnicity would have a well-founded fear of persecution in Sri Lanka on that basis alone. The Tribunal was accordingly not satisfied that there was a real chance that the appellant would face harm on the basis of his Tamil ethnicity if he were to return to Sri Lanka.
38 A fair reading of the Tribunal's reasons as a whole does not support the appellant's argument that the Tribunal misconstrued or misapplied the meaning of a "well-founded fear of persecution". There is no suggestion in the Tribunal's reasoning that it accepted that there was any probability, let alone a low probability that the appellant would be detained or prosecuted on the basis of his Tamil ethnicity alone. Indeed, the Tribunal's reasons, read fairly, suggest that it found that there was no risk or probability that the appellant would be persecuted on the basis of his ethnicity alone, or if there was any such risk, it was no more than a remote, insubstantial or far-fetched possibility. There was therefore no "real chance" that the appellant would be persecuted and his fears were accordingly not well-founded.