The reports of Mr Murdoch and Dr Banks
50 As noted above, Mr Aporo submits that a number of Tribunal findings were perverse, including the preference for the report of Mr Murdoch over that of Dr Banks. Mr Aporo emphasises the comment that Dr Banks did not provide an estimate of the likelihood of recidivism. He submits that, for that reason, the Tribunal did not give the report any weight.
51 That is simply not the case. It is true that Dr Banks did not provide an estimate in the sense that Mr Murdoch's report did, but the Tribunal did accept Dr Banks' conclusions, insofar as they went.
52 Mr Aporo submits that the circumstances warranted a further inquiry by the Tribunal and that it was incumbent on the Tribunal further to explore the assessment of Dr Banks who had offered further assistance, or to investigate the basis for Mr Murdoch's report. The Tribunal was not under such an obligation.
53 Mr Aporo also attacks the finding that Mr Murdoch's report did provide an estimate of the likelihood of recidivism. He says that there was no obvious basis for that conclusion and that no reasoning supporting the conclusion, nor was there an explanation of the relevant testing. He seems to be attacking Mr Murdoch's report as an expert report.
54 It is correct that the testing methodology was not contained in Mr Murdoch's report and that there was no explanation of the conclusion but, again, the Tribunal did not simply accept Mr Murdoch's estimate as to the likelihood of recidivism. The Tribunal accepted Mr Aporo's contention as to the correct estimate and there is no suggestion that a submission was made to the Tribunal that all such predictions should be rejected or that the subject matter could not be properly tested or that Mr Murdoch's report was inadmissible.
55 Mr Aporo says that the Tribunal was not obliged to consider an estimate of the likelihood of recidivism as a criterion under Ministerial Direction No 21 (at [2.10]). He submits that, in circumstances where expert evidence as to the risk of recidivism is inadequate, it was unreasonable for the Tribunal not to hold a further inquiry of readily available information regarding that issue (Luu v Renevier (1989) 91 ALR 39 at 47-8 and 50).
56 The Tribunal had before it Mr Murdoch's report, the Villawood assessment as outlined by Mr Aporo, as well as comments by Grove J concerning recidivism. There was, unlike Luu, a foundation for the Tribunal's conclusion. Dr Banks' report discussed the general question of recidivism which the Tribunal also took into account, although he did not give a present estimate of likelihood. In those circumstances, the Tribunal was not obliged to make a case for Mr Aporo (Minister for Immigration and Citizenship v Le (2007) 164 FCR 151 at [60]).
57 Mr Aporo submits that it would have been a "simple step" for the Tribunal to have pursued the avenues of inquiry offered by the availability of Mr Murdoch and Dr Banks to resolve any conflict in the material (SZIAI v Minister for Immigration and Citizenship (2008) 104 ALD 22 at [29]). It is not a question of whether it would have been a simple step for the Tribunal to pursue the avenues of inquiry. There was no conflict in the material before the Tribunal, as Dr Banks did not give an estimate. Rather, the Tribunal was unable from Dr Banks' report to draw a conclusion as to the likelihood of recidivism or the effect of rehabilitative steps on that likelihood, even if Mr Aporo were to undertake them. Even if there were a conflict, the Tribunal is not obliged whenever there is a conflict in the evidence presented to conduct its own investigation to resolve that apparent conflict if it is able to give reasons for preferring or giving more weight to some evidence over other evidence or preferring one opinion over another. It is not simply a question of whether or not Dr Banks had provided an estimate in the sense of some mathematical analysis. The resolution of a conflict in the evidence is not the taking of the sort of step of embarking upon the Tribunal's own inquiries as to the underlying facts, which then imports further obligations (SZIAI at [29]). The obligation on an administrator to make its own inquiries is strictly limited (SZIAI at [25]).
58 Mr Aporo now criticises the Tribunal for accepting his statements in respect of the Villawood assessment and criticises the Tribunal for accepting the evidence from a witness, namely himself, who had a 'demonstrated propensity to fabricate evidence'. Mr Aporo relies upon the Tribunal's acceptance of his own evidence as indicating a capriciousness in the decision making process and a failure to act judicially in the sense of being based on 'instinct, a hunch or a gut-feeling' (WAIJ v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (2004) 80 ALD 568 at [20] and following; Sharp v Wakefield [1891] AC 173 at 179).
59 The Tribunal was entitled to accept so much of Mr Aporo's evidence and submissions as it determined was acceptable. Further, there is a difference between submissions and the result of an assessment and evidence of criminal history.
60 Mr Aporo says that there was insufficient material before either the delegate or the Tribunal to support a conclusion regarding the likelihood of recidivism adverse to Mr Aporo. The Tribunal was entitled to take account of the evidence and submissions before it and come to a conclusion based upon that evidence and those submissions. That is what occurred. The Tribunal was not obliged to conduct an independent investigation, or to conduct its own assessment of the likelihood of Mr Aporo's recidivism.