The Tribunal
8 On 12 August 2013, the appellant's representatives applied to the Tribunal for review of the delegate's decision. The appellant was invited to attend a hearing, which took place on 15 January 2015. He was represented.
9 The Tribunal set out the appellant's claims and evidence from T[4] to T[36] of its statement of decision and reasons. In summary, the Tribunal accepted the appellant's claims that:
(1) he provided low-level local campaign support to the UNP in one local government election campaign in October 2011 but was never a formal member of the UNP: T[41], T[53];
(2) he and his family received adverse treatment from "NL" and his family and supporters: T[43], T[44];
(3) his father was shoved and pushed by NL's supporters in 2011, causing him to fall and injure himself and to subsequently die from a heart attack: T[44];
(4) he travelled to Jaffna together with 70 other Tamil UNP supporters from his hometown to participate in a May Day rally in May 2012, despite being warned by the family and supporters of NL not to attend: T[45];
(5) while he was at the May Day rally, supporters of NL went to his family home and damaged property: T[45]; and
(6) his brother was assaulted by a supporter of NL's family on his way home from a funeral in January 2014: T[46].
10 The Tribunal did not accept that the appellant was attacked many times in the past for reason of his support for the UNP: T[42]. It did not accept that the appellant or any member of his family was threatened with harm after the attack on their home in May 2012, with the exception of the applicant's brother in January 2014 (as mentioned above): T[46].
11 At the hearing, the Tribunal asked the appellant to comment on information regarding the recent election of President Sirisena and the status of the UNP. This can be seen in the Tribunal's reasons at T[27] and T[28] (emphasis added):
27. The Tribunal noted that it [had been] almost three years since the 2012 May Day incident and that there was now a new President in Sri Lanka, and it asked him to explain why, in those circumstances, [NL] would want to harm him. … The Tribunal put to him that high profile opponents and rivals of [NL's family] might be at risk of harm, but it was difficult to understand why he, a low profile UNP supporter, who supported the UNP in one election in October 2011, would be at risk of harm three years after he left the country. …
28. The Tribunal noted that the information before it from independent sources indicated that UNP politicians, UNP candidates and members and high profile UNP supporters had been subjected to attacks in recent years, and reports indicate that election day violence has occurred, however, there were few reports to indicate that low-level UNP supporters had been subjected to targeted adverse treatment and violence in the recent past. In response, he said the low-level supporters were the ones most at risk and that the violence against them was not being reported. The Tribunal discussed the submissions of his agent which referred to under-reporting of incidents and the existence of some reports of attacks against UNP supporters in the past. It asked him to comment on the recent election of President Sirisena who was part of a UNP coalition, which suggested the UNP was now part of the ruling government and that the situation for UNP supporters could be likely to improve in the future. In response he said that the new president was formerly a member of the past government and it is too early to know what will happen in the future.
12 The Tribunal also referred later in its reasons to information concerning the election of President Sirisena and the recent electoral success of the UNP in the context of assessing whether there was a real chance the appellant would suffer serious harm on his return. The Tribunal stated (emphasis added):
53. In light of its findings that he was a low-level supporter of the UNP in one election campaign in October 2011, the Tribunal is prepared to accept that on return he would continue to provide 'low-level support' to the UNP during any future election campaigns. As discussed with the applicant at the hearing, the independent information before the Tribunal indicates that in the past UNP members and candidates had been subjected to violence during election periods by supporters of the UPFA and the SLFP, however, there were few reports to indicate that low-level UNP supporters had been subjected to targeted adverse treatment and violence in the recent past. He claimed that low-level supporters were the ones most at risk and that the violence against them was not being reported. In his submissions, the agent raised claims about the under-reporting of incidents and referred to the existence of some reports of attacks against UNP supporters in the past but argued that, the issue for consideration, was what would happen to the applicant in his particular circumstances, which include the fact he had already come to the adverse attention of the [family of NL] who know of his past support for the UNP and campaign-related activities in Negombo.
54. In this context, the Tribunal has carefully considered the information referred to in the written submissions of his migration agent, as well as the 'Issues Paper' of June 2013 prepared by the Tribunal's former Country Research Unit 'Sri Lanka: Treatment of Opposition Groups, Critics, and Persons with Certain LTTE Links', and the recent DFAT reports 'Country Information Report: Sri Lanka' dated 3 October 2014 and 16 February 2015. It has also taken into account UNHCR's most recent 'Eligibility Guidelines' from October 2012, which do not identify or refer to UNP members or supporters as being generally at risk of persecution. It also notes that, in January 2015, a new President belonging to a UNP coalition was elected to a five year term, which indicates the UNP is now effectively the ruling party in Sri Lanka [citing 'Country Information Report: Sri Lanka', DFAT, 16 February 2015].
55. Having considered the evidence and information before it, the Tribunal considers that the chance the applicant would suffer serious harm for reasons of his low-level support for the UNP, including during election periods when it accepts he would provide campaign-related assistance such as putting up posters and door-knocking in his local area, from or by supporters of opposing parties, is remote and far-fetched. As noted above, there are few reports to indicate that low-level supporters of the UNP had been subjected to targeted violence or harm in the recent past, and in the Tribunal's view the available information does not support a finding that there is a real chance that a low-level supporter of the UNP would be subjected to serious harm in the reasonably foreseeable future in the Negombo area or anywhere else in Sri Lanka. In the Tribunal's view, the fact a UNP lead [sic] coalition government is now in power in Colombo would further reduce the chance that a low-level UNP supporter such as the applicant would be subjected to serious harm in the reasonably foreseeable future. On the information before it, the Tribunal is not prepared to accept the claims made by the applicant and his agent that a greater number of targeted incidents do in fact occur but are not reported by media or human rights organisations. In making this finding it has considered but, on the information and evidence before it, including the reasons set out below in paragraphs 57 to 59, does not accept that, because the [family of NL] are already aware of his support for the UNP, including his campaign-related activities in Negombo, he is at an increased risk of being subjected to serious harm, for reasons of his future UNP support and activities, and that the chance of that happening would be more than a remote chance.
…
59. For all of these reasons, on the evidence and information before it, including that a UNP lead [sic] coalition government is in power in Colombo, the Tribunal considers that the chance the applicant would be subjected to serious harm by a member or supporter of the [family of NL], for reasons of his UNP support or any other reason, is remote and far-fetched, and the Tribunal does not accept there is a real chance he would suffer serious harm in that way or for those reasons in the event he returns to Sri Lanka in the reasonably foreseeable future.
13 On 18 March 2015, the Tribunal notified the appellant of its decision to affirm the delegate's decision to refuse the protection visa application.