4.2.2 Ground 2 must be dismissed
34 Applying these principles, first, it follows that the Tribunal did not fall into error at [32] of its reasons (quoted above at [17]) merely insofar as it sought to draw inferences about what may happen in the future if the mother returns to China from what had happened to her in the past. However, the basis on which those inferences are drawn must still be rational and logical, as the Full Court held in Muggeridge.
35 Secondly, one of the reasons given by the Tribunal at [32] for finding that there is no real risk of harm if the mother returns to China due to her outstanding debts was that the mother had remained in China for several years without being subject to any action with respect to the small business loans apart from repeated requests for repayment. Insofar as this reasoning was used to found an inference that a similar approach would be taken by those who had made the real estate project loan in 2006, I consider that it is illogical and irrational. The small business loans were made by the mother's family, friends and neighbours in or about 1990 to assist the mother when her small business was losing money (Tribunal reasons at 20). However, the real estate project loan was made in 2006 by apparently different friends for one year in order to enable her to invest in their real estate projects with the promise that for a high interest rate, they would give her a bonus of 30-40%. However, while the mother said that her friends made a lot of money, they denied that they had made any money and pursued her for the debt arising from the real estate project loan (Tribunal reasons at 20). As such, the allegation with respect to the real estate project loan was essentially that the mother was the victim of a scam. The response of these creditors was essentially untested because the mother left China in 2007 not long after the real estate project loan fell due. I accept, therefore, the appellants' submission that it could not rationally be inferred that the response of those allegedly involved in such a scam would be the same as the family and friends who lent the mother money for a perfectly legitimate purpose many years earlier.
36 However, while the Tribunal therefore fell into error, I do not consider that it is jurisdictional in nature. This is for essentially the same reason that ground 1 was dismissed, namely, that despite the onus imposed by s 5AAA upon the appellants, and upon them alone, to identify their claims and provide sufficient evidence in support of them, they failed to do so. The Tribunal's rejection of the mother's claim to have been detained in the past for her debts is not challenged. All that remained was therefore the mother's bare assertion that she feared for her safety if returned because of her indebtedness. No other evidence was led in support of the claim.
37 It follows that it cannot be said that even though the Tribunal's reasoning was illogical and irrational in the respect alleged, the error was material for the reasons earlier given. The Tribunal's finding at [32]-[33] that there was no evidence that her indebtedness on either set of loans would result in her arrest and imprisonment, or in her being subjected to significant harm, if she were returned to China discloses no jurisdictional error. As Wigney J in Minister for Immigration and Border Protection v SZUXN [2016] FCA 516; (2016) 69 AAR 210 (SZUXN) explained (in a passage approved by the Full Court in CQG15 at [60]):
55. … Even if an aspect of reasoning, or a particular factual finding, is shown to be irrational or illogical, jurisdictional error will generally not be established if that reasoning or finding of fact was immaterial, or not critical to, the ultimate conclusion or end result …
(citations omitted)